THL Legacy Playoff Chances

GeraniumBattle and research assistant Robocats teamed up to take a look at the Legacy Series playoff picture going into the final week of the regular season.

Legacy Season 19 has 24 teams split across 3 conferences. Qualifying for playoffs is simple: be one of the top 4 teams in your conference by the end of this week. What are everyone’s chances looking like?

Probabilities were calculated by Robocats, whose algorithm was a great help in writing this article. His algorithm last season was also top notch, consistently great work from him!
Gold Conference

Golden Wisps (144 points)
Current Placement: 1
Points ahead of 5th: 23
Week 9 opponent: Flame Pimps
With a huge power buff by being in their own color conference, and being the only team with fewer than 2 week losses, it is no surprise that the Golden Wisps are on top of Gold Conference. With the one week lost this season coming from Defias Brotherhood, even if Golden Wisps gets 0 points and DadLegend gets all 23, the Golden Wisps would still break the tie. 0% chance to miss playoffs, and an extremely high likelihood to get the bye.
Probability: 100%

The Cult Legacy (133 points)
Current Placement: 2
Points ahead of 5th: 12
Week 9 opponent: Agent PEE Ele and the Lightshowers
Not much can keep this monstrous team from playoffs. They’ve done all their rituals; they’ve even dotted their t’s and crossed their i's. Presumably, this faceless allegiance will be turning their cloaks towards other conferences and looking to get the wildcard bye spot.
Probability: 98%

Agent PEE Ele and the Lightshowers (128 points)
Current Placement: 3
Points ahead of 5th: 7
Week 9 opponent: The Cult Legacy
Looking up at our competitors for the week, it certainly doesn’t look like this will be a convincing win. And looking down at DadLegend hungrily licking its lips at us, it certainly doesn’t feel safe at the top. DadLegend wins the head-to-head tiebreaker, so maybe I should be writing a last will and testament instead of this article.
Probability: 84.2%

Defias Brotherhood (124 points)
Current Placement: 4
Points ahead of 5th: 3
Week 9 opponent: Saronite Pain Gang
Defias starts the closest to slipping out of contention, but their opponents have the least points in all of Legacy Season 19. Even if they start 4 points behind Agent PEE Ele and the Lightshowers, they almost seemingly start with an extra win on the week, which makes up those 4 points immediately. “Defy us, and you’ll get cut!”
Probability: 80.7%

DadLegend (121 points)
Current Placement: 5
Points behind 4th: 3
Week 9 opponent: Meme Dream Team
It’s a 4-team race, and one team has to start on the bottom. Making up a 3-point deficit wouldn’t be too hard, except Defias is facing the only win-less team in the conference. It could be a plan to make up the difference with the Lightshowers, but that would mean a pretty huge 7-point swing. If DadLegend gets a simple win, a 17–18-point week, that still means that the Lightshowers would still make it in with a 12-point loss. In order to reach playoffs, DadLegend will have to have a pretty fantastic week or hope for a tragic performance from their competitors.
Probability: 37.1%

Meme Dream Team (105 points)
Current Placement: 6
Points behind 4th: 19
Week 9 opponent: DadLegend
Technically, Meme Dream Team should have a higher probability to make playoffs than Flame Pimps or SPG. BUT, it is such a long shot for them to full sweep DadLegend and for SPG to full sweep Defias that the probability will stay at 0. Once Defias gets a single match win against the win-less SPG, this Dream will become nothing but a Meme.
Notable wins include nebcanuck, TwoStarMako, and Amber Flight Gaming on their path to finishing out this season.
Probability: 0%

Flame Pimps (102 points)
Current Placement: 7
Points behind 4th: 22
Week 9 opponent: Golden Wisps
It may look at first glance like Flame Pimps has a chance, an extremely slim one. Being 22 points behind Defias Brotherhood, they could hope to completely sweep the Golden Wisps and hope that Defias meets the same fate at Saronite Pain Gang’s hands. However unlikely that is, the real problem comes with DadLegend facing Meme Dream Team this week. 
Flame Pimps and SPG would not only need to sweep, but Meme Dream Team would need to go 4-1 on match wins against DadLegend, all of them being 3-0 matches (such that MDT gets 19 points and DadLegend gets 4). THEN Flame Pimps would be tied at 125 with DadLegend, one of the few teams they’ve beaten during the season. If they were in a 3-way tie, unfortunately # of week wins favors the other two teams. The probability isn’t exactly 0 but it might as well be, I expect them to be mathematically eliminated once the first match result comes in.
Man, I’m saying so much about Flame Pimps! Their season may be coming to a close, but they’ll still be able to remember their notable wins over HonestZaib, DadLegend, and Meme Dream Team. If only they could tie with one of them and make it into playoffs...
Probability: 0%

Saronite Pain Gang (65 points)
Current Placement: 8
Points behind 4th: 59
Week 9 opponent: Defias Brotherhood
Saronite Pain Gang has a lot to be proud of. Despite never having won a week so far this season, they have wins over Nails, AlwaysLethal, Mick, Donde, and urmumked. Unfortunately, with a record of 0-8 it’s unsurprising that they aren’t going to be able to make playoffs, but they can at least try to win their last week and maybe stop Defias Brotherhood from qualifying.
Probability: 0%

Silver Conference

Wallet Warriors (138 points)
Current Placement: 1
Points ahead of 5th: 27
Week 9 opponent: All Pros Missing
Wallet Warriors has only recently been embracing Warrior as a class, but they’ve been embracing winning as a team for much longer. Their hardest opponent might be this fnal week against APM, but with more than a full week’s worth of points between them and elimination, there’s no chance of missing playoffs.
Probability: 100%

All Pros Missing (131 points)
Current Placement: 2
Points ahead of 5th: 20
Week 9 opponent: Wallet Warriors
Yes, yes, the number of points ahead of 5th here means APM could miss playoffs... if it weren’t for the fact that the 5th place team winning very hard also means the 4th place team gets removed from playoff contention. The only extremely slim chance is if AFG manages to full sweep, IDK manages a huge win, either Not Justin or DMB full sweeps, and APM gets board-cleared by Wallet Warriors and has nothing left. Seeing as that is a near-0% possibility, making playoffs is a 100% chance. This last week is really just a competition to see whether a big win gives APM the bye spot over Wallet Warriors.
Probability: 100%

Illidan’s Death Knights (116 points)
Current Placement: 3
Points ahead of 5th: 5
Week 9 opponent: HOT ZILFS
With a horrible loss last week, IDK actually could be cursed. JRJuggerLaw has missed playoffs by 3 points, 2 points, and 1 point. However, with a 7-point lead over AFG and 10 points over their opponents this week, it would be almost impossible to miss playoffs here, right? Right?
By the way, for anyone morbidly curious if JR can miss playoffs by 0 points, he can if IDK ties with AFG or HOT ZILFS in a two-way tie. With three teams in the tie, IDK would make it through based on their 5 week wins. It’s incredibly unlikely, but after their results last week, anything looks possible.
Probability: 72.8%

Not Justin (111 points)
Current Placement: 4/5
Points ahead of 5th: 0
Week 9 opponent: Dirty Mike and the Boys
Much like not being in a conference of your own color, Not Justin has received a considerable nerf by not having a full team of Justins to prey on. This is a pretty simple win-and-in for Not Justin, getting 17+ points nearly guarantees a spot. Also, unsure why they have a slightly better likelihood to make it to playoffs, their tiebreakers are worse than DMB with a loss to AFG in week 1, a tie with more match losses against HOT ZILFS in week 2, and a loss to IDK in week 4. It looks like they’re just going to have to prove that they’re worth the extra 2%.
Probability: 45.2%

Dirty Mike and the Boys (111 points)
Current Placement: 4/5
Points ahead of 5th: 0
Week 9 opponent: Not Justin
It makes sense that the chances that either Not Justin or DMB making it into playoffs is near 100%. The rest of that possibility pie comes from AFG having a monstrous week and neither DMB nor Not Justin winning very hard. But, with good tiebreakers over the competition, we could be seeing a real return to form for DMB. What will they even do if they get another chance to make a shirt?
Probability: 43.6%

Amber Flight Gaming (109 points)
Current Placement: 6
Points behind 4th: 2
Week 9 opponent: red fish.
AFG is coming off of a huge week and facing the weakest team in their conference. With Neji carrying the team this far, can he continue to be a one-man army and lead the team to a repeat performance? Amazingly, there may still be life in this team yet as they try to win big and overcome the teams directly above them.
Probability: 27.2%

HOT ZILFS (106 points)
Current Placement: 7
Points behind 4th: 5
Week 9 opponent: Illidan’s Death Knights
Normally I’m used to looking at the 7th place teams and seeing a 0% possibility, but... there’s a chance? If Donde finds his old spark and starts sweeping again this week, they could even knock out IDK from playoffs! 
Ok, now that I’m done breathing in my Hopium fumes, it’s certainly not going to be easy here. HOT ZILFS will most likely need a 23-point week to outpace DMB/Not Justin, or at the very least will need to thoroughly trounce IDK and take their spot while hoping AFG doesn’t quite make it. Unfortunately, these defending champs are not in playoffs for sure.
Probability: 11.2%

red fish. (80 points)
Current Placement: 8
Points behind 4th: 31
Week 9 opponent: Amber Flight Gaming
Golden Wisps got a team-wide buff by appearing in their color conference, and red fish. got a team-wide nerf by rolling into the silver conference. Wins over Shoebacca, Dusharmo, Anfal, and (CVG) Hastur and a tie in the first week against HOT ZILFS could keep hopes up for next season’s prospects.
Probability: 0%

Red Conference

blue fish. (135 points)
Current Placement: 1
Points ahead of 5th: 16
Week 9 opponent: F2L White
Between red and silver conference, there is a sandwich with two fish as the bread. A Tale of Two fish., if you will. This team has had a few rough weeks recently, but their lead coming into the final weeks means they are still virtually guaranteed a playoff spot. They’ll have to fend off the hungry hungry F2L White if they want to avoid being dinner and keep their bye spot.
Probability: 99.8%

Seek Guidance (133 points)
Current Placement: 2
Points ahead of 5th: 14
Week 9 opponent: Da STUBBS
Seek Guidance has the slightest of edges over blue fish. because of their opponent’s strength being just a bit lower. It looks like the focus for both of these top teams will be on keeping ahead of Team Justin and the other conferences in the race for a bye spot. By the way, while I’m getting a blog post written, may I just say I would have liked them to consider the childish game of Guidance Seek for their team name? All you have to do is close your eyes, play cards costing 1 to 10, and then open your eyes and find the shard!
Probability: 99.9%

Team Justin (129 points)
Current Placement: 3
Points ahead of 5th: 10
Week 9 opponent: Standard THL Degenerates
Justin, Justin, Justin, Justin, and Justin have almost completed their tour of the conference, starting low and ending up high. With a field of strong non-Justin competitors out there, will they have a realistic chance of staying near the top of their conference??? Yes.
When I think about their playoff chances, my mind always drifts back to Ray Parker Jr. singing “Justin makes me feel good!” 
Probability: 96.9%

F2L White (119 points)
Current Placement: 4/5
Points ahead of 5th: 0
Week 9 opponent: blue fish.
Hold on a second, F2L has the same number of points as Chaos Theory, why is their chance for playoffs so much lower? Unfortunately for them, their two competitors Fought 2 Late, so now F2L has to not only win this week, but win more than both Chaos Theory and The Cooler. If Chaos Theory has a bad week and The Cooler comes away big, that still means F2L’s demise. No matter what, if they can’t beat the top team in the conference, they’ll be waving a (F2L) White Flag by the end of this week.
Probability: 33.1%

Chaos Theory (119 points)
Current Placement: 4/5
Points ahead of 5th: 0
Week 9 opponent: The Cooler
This is definitely all part of the plan for Chaos Theory, a very chaotic final week in red conference. Most of the time, a simple win on the week will mean that Chaos Theory advances to playoffs, since their other competitor in F2L is facing the toughest possible competition.
Probability: 42.4%

The Cooler (117 points)
Current Placement: 6
Points behind 4th: 2
Week 9 opponent: Chaos Theory
This is definitely all part of the plan for The Cooler, a battle where the cooler heads prevail. Most of the time, a simple win on the week will mean that The Cooler advances to playoffs, since their other competitor in F2L is facing the toughest possible competition.
Probability: 27.9%

Standard THL Degenerates (100 points)
Current Placement: 7
Points behind 4th: 19
Week 9 opponent: Team Justin
STD looks like it could get a huge week and still be in contention, but because of how close the race is, there is actually no possibility of keeping both The Cooler and Chaos Theory below the uncatchable threshold. Just like a virus, I hope it becomes part of their cell DNA to remember notable wins like TwoStarMako, Deadsnoop123, and the only match win over epicmingo anyone’s been able to get! 
Probability: 0%

Da STUBBS (86 points)
Current Placement: 8
Points behind 4th: 33
Week 9 opponent: Seek Guidance
With only one week win over Flame Pimps, Da STUBBS just couldn’t cut it this season. At least they’ll be able to point to their wins over MrPython, Mayanadon, jimbo_o, and Tacocat while they prepare for next season.
Probability: 0%