Ragnaros X - Week 4 Lineup Trends by Altenberg

Did you hear? Blizzard made some kind of announcement last week…I don’t know if you heard about it, because it wasn’t like it was big news or anything (insert sarcasm smiley here). On the miniscule chance that you didn’t read Blizzard’s announcement, go read it. I know it’s a week old, but since last week’s Lineup Trends article was written the day before Blizzard’s article was released, I haven’t had a chance to respond until now. The next few paragraphs contain my reactions to their “In the Works” post, and then the rest of the regular Lineup Trends that you know and love will follow. If you don’t want to read my reaction, just scroll down a bit and skip it, otherwise, read on!


There were three announcements made in the Blizzard post that have a direct impact on THL, as I see it. The first such announcement was about the state of the meta. Blizzard wrote:


“We’ve seen the meta-game start to stabilize in the wake of The Boomsday Project’s release. Decks like Odd Warrior, Odd Paladin, Token Druid, Tempo Mage, Taunt Druid, Zoo Warlock, Quest Rogue, Secret Hunter, Even Paladin, Deathrattle Hunter, and Even Warlock, have all been top performers. While those decks stand out from the pack slightly, there are effective decks from every class. Evolve Shaman and Combo Priest have both seen success, for example. Overall we’re happy with the excellent diversity of decks we’re seeing at all levels of Ranked Play.”


While this might be true of the basic ranked and casual play formats, in my opinion, this is definitely not true of the Conquest tournament meta, nor of the specific THL Blind Conquest meta. Of the decks they listed, we haven’t seen very much: Tempo Mage, Even/Odd Paladin, Combo Priest, Evolve Shaman or Odd Warrior specifically in Ragnaros league, as those classes are being pushed out of the tournament meta in favor of the top four classes with decks like: Token/Taunt Druid, Zoo/Even Warlock, Quest/Odd Rogue and Secret/Deathrattle Hunter. In fact, after 4 weeks of tournament play, Druid, Hunter, Rogue and Warlock continue to dominate class selection while Mage, Paladin, Priest, Shaman and Warrior are complete afterthoughts and are barely being used. While I understand that ranked/casual formats are completely different than Conquest tournament formats where a class ban is in play (and their primary concern in balancing the game is for ranked ladder), the meta as I see it is not in a very healthy state. If you look at overall win rates of decks on the ladder from sources like HSReplay or Vicious Syndicate, on the surface, the meta seems perfectly balanced with a wide variety of decks that have reasonable overall win rates between 48-52%. But if you look closer, you will see that individual deck vs deck matchups are lopsided. Having so many lopsided match-up creates a tournament environment where queue order and bans become the most critical part of determining the match outcomes, rather than actual gameplay. It also creates a ladder environment that, for me, can be extremely frustrating to play if you get a string of “bad,” lopsided matchups all in a row. It also means that in order to rank up the ladder and reach a decks supposed “52% win rate”, I have to play many, many more games to overcome all those lopsided matchups that are sure to happen, rather than using skill and technical play to win some of the slightly unfavored 46-48% match-ups (of which there are just not as many right now).


So, in my opinion, this meta is unbalanced, because of many lopsided matchups. This is partly due to polarizing decks that are present in the meta like Quest Rogue and Odd Warrior, but I believe it is also due to some of the new cards that entered the meta in Boomsday. And this leads me to announcement #2 where they discussed their decision not to institute any balance changes in the immediate future, saying:


“Giggling Inventor is hugely popular and shows up in a lot of decks. We intended for Giggling Inventor to be powerful because we’ve found that having powerful neutral Taunt minions tends to make games more interesting. We’ve seen that with cards like Sludge Belcher and Tar Creeper in the past. Cards that fulfill this role need to be strong to get that job done, but there’s a line where they might be too good. We aren’t planning any changes to Giggling Inventor for now, but we’re keeping an eye on it in the meantime. We’d like to know what you think.”


I would agree that Giggling Inventor is the most similar to Sludge Belcher in that both hit at the 5 mana spot and require multiple minion attacks to remove or silences/tech cards to deal with. While Blizzard may find those cards to be “interesting” in the meta, I find them to be two things: inherently powerful and extremely frustrating to play against. Big neutral minions in the 5-spot demand counter play. It’s why almost every deck ran Sludge Blecher and Silence tech cards at the same time back in the day, and it's why decks now are running Giggling Inventor and Blood Knight or Giggling Inventor and Mossy Horror. Giggling Inventor is being run in every deck, because it’s too good not to, and you run the counter to Giggling Inventor to beat your opponent’s play of the same card, because...everyone is running it because of how powerful it is. And for me, that isn’t fun and it limits deck design. When Giggling Inventor is being run in aggro decks (Odd Paladin, Odd Rogue and Zoo Warlock) AND its being run in late game decks like Malygos/Token Druid and Deathrattle Hunter, that should be a sign that maybe the card is too powerful. Blizzard admits that the card is powerful and that their intent was to make it popular and powerful like Sludge Belcher. Well Blizzard, I think you’ve achieved your goal there. And since you want my feedback, I’ll gladly give it! I’ve been calling for a nerf to that card for the past 3 weeks. I hated Sludge Belcher back in the day, because it is inherently powerful, and as a neutral minion it was in every deck, which required specific tech cards. And I hate Giggling Inventor for the same reasons. The fact that they’ve chosen NOT to nerf Giggling Inventor (or anything else for that matter), indicates that they are happy with the current polarized meta, which is a shame.

But all those gripes pale in comparison to the last announcement that has a direct impact on THL: they are putting “Tournament Mode” on hold. They said:


“Earlier this year we talked about adding a new feature to Hearthstone that would make it easier to organize tournaments for Fireside Gatherings and private events. The team has been working on this feature for some time, and it was originally slated to arrive this year. Unfortunately, In-game Tournaments are now on hold, so we wanted to take this opportunity to explain why.


We have a lot of plans to improve many features of Hearthstone, including its social experience, and In-game Tournaments are an important part of that. Tournaments can serve many different audiences, but the implementation we’d arrived at catered to a very specific audience of players. Instead of broadening Hearthstone with an exciting new way to play, it felt “tacked on”, and wasn’t integrating well into the larger Hearthstone experience.


Ultimately, we were forced to conclude that we needed to think about how and where we want to improve Hearthstone’s overall social experience before we can tackle adding a satisfying and robust implementation of In-game Tournaments that all players can enjoy. As developers, sometimes we have to make the difficult decision to step away from a design that isn’t working. We no longer felt that the end result would deliver on everyone’s expectations or the high standards we have for Hearthstone.


As a result, while we want to revisit In-Game Tournaments at a later date, the feature is on hold for the foreseeable future.”


This is extremely disappointing, and even though I have personal complaints about the meta, and the lack of balance changes, this for me, was the biggest let-down. The meta will always change and shift, and some expansions have been very fun, rewarding and have maintained my interest on a daily basis, while others, like the current one, have just not been as fun. But there is always a new expansion on the horizon and metas are constantly shifting, changing and evolving. So, while I think there is something to complain about with regards to the current meta, it’s just not that big of a deal in the long run. Liking the meta or not is a personal, subjective choice, and it will change in the future. But the lack of a Tournament Mode IS a big deal. Tournament Mode is something the hearthstone community has been asking for since the beginning. It’s something that our THL community would benefit immensely from. As it stands we have to rely on 3rd party “everything” to run tournaments, and it just shouldn’t have to be that complicated. We shouldn’t have to go outside the game to run a best of 5 tournament with bans. The fact that Blizzard promised this mode for almost a year, and then suddenly pulled the plug with no announced plans to continue is disheartening, disappointing and causing me personally to explore other games. I’m not giving up on Hearthstone or anything, but if Blizzard can’t deliver on promised features that the community has been asking for, literally for years, why should we continue to give them our money? It really is as simple as that. Eternal has been pretty fun I must say.


Now that I got that off my chest, it’s onto Lineup Trends! In the wise words of The Who, the New Boss (Week 4 meta) is the same as the Old Boss (previous 3 weeks meta), so don’t get fooled again! The same four classes continue to dominate: Druid, Rogue, Hunter, and Warlock while Mage, Paladin, Priest, Shaman and Warrior are almost afterthoughts by comparison. That lack of class diversity is again reflected in the number of unique lineups, twenty-six, which is nearly identical to last week’s diversity. Hunter and Warlock both had great weeks as classes, while Shaman, Paladin and Mage all had terrible weeks. There was consequently a little shake-up in the overall class win rates table listed near the bottom. We had three popular lineups from last week disappear and two new ones took their place. So, without further ado, here are the seven most popular lineups from Week 4.


Popular Week 4 Lineups
​Lineup #1 – Druid, Hunter, Rogue, and Warlock

Week 4 Stats
32 lineups, 20-12 record (63%)
Druid Bans: 10-4 (71%)
Hunter Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Rogue Bans: 6-4 (60%)
Warlock Bans: 3-3 (50%)


Season 10 Stats
120 lineups, 67-53 record (56%)
Druid Bans: 29-27, 52%
Hunter Bans: 5-5, 50%
Rogue Bans: 19-11, 63%
Warlock Bans: 14-10, 58%


The most popular lineup through the first four weeks of the season had a great showing in Week 4, winning 63% of it’s matchups. It has maintained a winning record every week but had started to show a downward trend last week. If there was any doubt about why this is the most popular lineup, there should be none now. After 120 matches, it’s winning 56% of them and this is the “level 1” lineup for a reason. Druid seemed like the best ban choice during the first three weeks, but that didn’t work out last week. Could a Hunter ban be the best way to counter this lineup? Hunter currently has the best win rate of any class through the first four weeks, just so you know.


Lineup #2 – Druid, Hunter, Rogue, Shaman

Week 4 Stats
8 Lineups, 4-4 Record (50%)
Druid Bans: 4-1, 80%
Rogue Bans: 0-3, 0%


Season 10 Stats
15 Lineups, 6-9 Record (40%)
Druid Bans: 4-4 (50%)
Hunter Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Rogue Bans: 1-4 (20%)
Shaman Bans: 0-0 (0%)


This is a brand-new lineup, not having shown up as a “popular” lineup yet this season. It was brought 8 times making it the 2nd most popular lineup last week. This is an interesting experiment where it takes Lineup #1 and swaps out Warlock for Shaman. Unfortunately, it had a mediocre showing going 4-4 in matches. While it’s the first time it has shown up as a popular lineup, it’s not the first time it’s been used. It has been used 7 times throughout the first three weeks of the season, and overall this lineup has not been doing well, winning only 40% of its matches. When Rogue is banned, this lineup has really struggled, and when Druid has been banned, it’s only breaking even. Shaman has not been banned in 15 appearances, which leads me to believe it’s the class being targeted in this lineup. When you also consider that Shaman now has the worst win rate of any class this season, it’s easy to understand why this lineup has struggled.


Lineup #3 – Druid, Mage, Rogue, and Warlock

Week 4 Stats
7 lineups, 2-5 record (29%)
Druid Bans: 0-2 (0%)
Mage Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Rogue Bans: 1-2 (33%)
Warlock Bans: 0-0 (0%)


Season 10 Stats
32 lineups, 14-19 record (42%)
Druid Bans: 6-12 (33%)
Mage Bans: 2-1 (67%)
Rogue Bans: 3-5 (38%)
Warlock Bans: 3-1 (75%)


It appears I will be forced to continue to write about how bad this lineup is as long as people keep bringing it. Through four weeks, it has not had an overall winning record in any given week. And after being used 32 times so far this season, it is only winning 42% of its matches. I just don’t see it. If you’re bringing Mage, you’re likely trying to counter Quest Rogue or Warlock with Tempo Mage, or maybe trying to counter Zoolock or aggro decks with Big Spell Mage? And yet the lineup also has Rogue and Warlock in it. So, then you’re forced to potentially play a mirror match, which makes this lineup kind of weird and probably ineffective. That’s my 2 cents…take it or leave it…err, bring it or not bring…nevermind.

​Lineup #4 – Druid, Rogue, Shaman, Warlock

Week 4 Stats
7 Lineups, 3-4 record (43%)
Druid Bans: 1-3 (25%)
Rogue Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Shaman Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Warlock Bans: 1-0 (100%)


Season 10 Stats
17 Lineups, 7-10 record (41%)
Druid Bans: 4-7 (36%)
Rogue Bans: 2-1 (67%)
Shaman Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Warlock Bans: 1-1 (50%)


This lineup performed poorly in Week 3, and it performed nearly identically again in Week 4. It seems like a mediocre option and Shaman feels like the weak link. In fact, after 17 appearances, no one has banned shaman when playing against this lineup. Like I mentioned in Lineup #2 above, Shaman seems targetable and is currently the worst class in the meta based on overall win rate.


Lineup #5 – Druid, Hunter, Mage, Rogue

Week 4 Stats
6 Lineups, 0-6 record (0%)
Druid Bans: 0-3 (0%)
Hunter Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Mage Bans: 0-3 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 0-0 (0%)


Season 10 Stats
21 Lineups, 4-17 (19%)
Druid Bans: 3-12 (20%)
Hunter Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Mage Bans: 0-3 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 1-1 (50%)


STOP BRINGING THIS LINEUP. I REPEAT, STOP BRINGING THIS LINEUP. For two weeks in a row, this lineup has not won a single match. It’s is 0-11 through two weeks. Enough said.


Lineup #6 – Druid, Hunter, Paladin, Rogue

Week 4 Stats
6 lineups, 2-4 record (33%)
Druid Bans: 1-4 (20%)
Hunter Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Paladin Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 1-0 (100%)


Season 10 Stats
22 Lineups, 14-8 record (64%)
Druid Bans: 7-7 (50%)
Hunter Bans: 2-0 (100%)
Paladin Bans: 2-0 (100%)
Rogue: 3-1 (75%)


The usage of this lineup has held pretty steady each week. While it performed well during the first three weeks, it had a pretty rough week last week going 2-4 in matches. But despite the one down week, overall, it’s still a 64% lineup. That said, it’s looking increasingly like a Druid ban is the best way to counter this lineup and the presence of Paladin would seem to be a potential liability. Paladin is the 3rd worst class in overall match win rate, and would seemingly be a targetable class. It remains to be seen if this lineup can bounce back in the coming weeks.

Lineup #7 – Druid, Hunter, Mage, Warlock

Week 4 Stats
5 lineups, 4-1 record (80%)
Druid Bans: 3-1 (75%)
Hunter Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Mage Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Warlock Bans: 0-0 (0%)


Season 10 Stats
30 lineups, 20-10 (67%)
Druid Bans: 7-3 (70%)
Hunter Bans: 5-2 (71%)
Mage Bans: 2-4 (33%)
Rogue Ban??: 1-0 (100%)
Warlock Bans: 5-1 (83%)


That brings us to the last “most popular” lineup from last week. Despite having back-to-back great performances, this lineup’s representation dropped big time in Week 4, from 15 lineups in Week 3 to only 5 lineups in Week 4. I don’t know what happened, but the five people that brought it sure did well with it, going 4-1. On the season this lineup has a healthy data set with 30 appearances and has an amazing 67% win rate. As I mentioned before, surprisingly Mage appears like the best ban choice. This lineup deserves more representation.


Week 4 Class Breakdown
There’s not much to say about the class breakdown. It’s still the same four classes, with Druid being used in all but 2 qualifying lineups (all but 3 if you include the two DQ’d lineups). That said, Rogue saw an uptick in usage for Week 4 jumping up into 2nd place, while Warlock saw a downtick in usage dropping to 4th place. Paladin’s usage didn’t change much, but Shaman saw a bit of an uptick last week so those two classes swap places in the popularity ranking. Below is the ranking of most popular classes from Week 4:


1. Druid (96 Lineups)
2. Rogue (83 Lineups)
3. Hunter (69 Lineups)
4. Warlock (67 Lineups)
5. Mage (21 Lineups)
6. Shaman (21 Lineups)
7. Paladin (16 Lineups)
8. Warrior (12 Lineups)
9. Priest (7 Lineups)


The two tables below show class win rates in matches and overall games from Week 4 and the combined Season totals. Take Priest for example, this table is showing how many matches and games every lineup that had Priest in it won and lost. I have ranked them in order of match win rate. As you can see, Priest comes out on top with the best match win rate in Week 4, largely because of small sample size. But when you look for Priest in the overall Season table below, it falls to 2nd worst, because it hasn’t performed very well when you combine weeks one through four. We now have four weeks’ worth of data and the meta continues to look very unbalanced with low diversity. Unfortunately, I was wrong about Blizzard announcing balance changes and addressing Giggling Inventor. It seems we’ll be stuck with this meta for the foreseeable future (next expansion won’t drop until early December by the way…that’s in 10 or 11 weeks).

Conclusion
As expected, Druid, Hunter, Rogue and Warlock finally all sit on top of the mountain of class win rates and are also the most popular. There was a very interesting development for Warrior last week. Despite having a positive win-rate in overall games played, it still only managed a 50% win rate in matches, and that disparity plays out even worse in its overall season stats where it has a winning record in games, but a losing record in matches. Warrior has been involved in some very close series and it’s on the cusp of having an overall winning record and solidifying itself as the 5th best class. It certainly has separated itself from the bottom four of Mage, Paladin, Priest and Shaman after last week. Mage had a rough Week 4 and it falls down to 6th place overall because of it. It's possible Mage could rebound in the coming weeks though.


Whew, I hope 3,300 words was enough for you, because that’s all I’ve got. Until next week, good luck and have fun!