Ragnaros X - Week 2 Lineup Trends

Welcome to a new week! It brings about…not a lot of changes. The Week 2 Ragnaros League meta was very similar to the Week 1 Ragnaros meta overall. The same four classes remain dominant: Druid, Warlock, Rogue and Hunter top the list, while Priest, Warrior and Shaman are distant after-thoughts. Mage picked up in popularity, perhaps after proving to have the top win rate after Week 1, but unfortunately as you’ll find out below, things didn’t go well for Mage with increased representation.


There were a few things to note about Week 2 when compared to Week 1. The first is that we saw a slight increase in lineup diversity. While only 26 unique lineups were brought in Week 1, we had 31 unique lineups in Week 2. There were five popular lineups in Week 1, but there were six popular lineups for Week 2, again showing some added diversity. Druid, Hunter, Rogue, and Warlock represent not only the four most popular classes, but was also the most popular lineup once again. One popular lineup from last week fell out of favor and two new ones took its place. What follows below is a breakdown of the six most popular lineups from Week 2.
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Popular Week 2 Lineups
Lineup #1 – Druid, Hunter, Rogue, and Warlock

Week 2 Stats
22 lineups, 11-11 record (50%)
Druid Bans: 5-5 (50%)
Hunter Bans: 3-1 (75%)
Rogue Bans: 1-3 (25%)
Warlock Bans: 2-2 (50%)


Season 10 Stats
58 lineups, 31-27 record (53%)
Druid Bans: 13-14, 48%
Hunter Bans: 3-3, 50%
Rogue Bans: 8-6, 57%
Warlock Bans: 7-4, 64%


Once again this lineup was the most popular bring, although it’s worth noting that it did drop a bit in popularity. It was brought 36 times in Week 1 and only 22 times in Week 2. Its performance also dropped a bit in Week 2 as it fell to an even 50% in matches. That said, it did go 47-40 overall in games in Week 2, and when combined with Week 1, this lineup still has a positive win rate in both matches and overall games. Based on the combined data, Druid appears to be the most effective way to ban this lineup as it is the only one that gives it a sub-50% win rate overall. While the Rogue ban was effective last week, it was very ineffective week 1 and combined it still remains not a great choice. Unless the meta undergoes a massive shift in the next week or two (perhaps due to some upcoming balance changes???), these four classes will likely continue to be the most popular lineup.

Lineup #2 – Druid, Mage, Rogue, and Warlock

Week 2 Stats
11 lineups, 5-6 record (45%)
Druid Bans: 3-3 (50%)
Mage Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 0-2 (0%)
Warlock Bans: 2-1 (67%)


Season 10 Stats
20 lineups, 9-11 record (45%)
Druid Bans: 4-8 (33%)
Mage Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Rogue Bans: 1-2 (33%)
Warlock Bans: 3-1 (75%)


This lineup was once again the second most popular lineup last week, brought by 11 different people. Despite it’s terrible win-rate last week (44% in matches), it actually saw an INCREASE in representation. Apparently, those people didn’t read this article, because the lineup performed nearly identically in week 2 as it did in week 1. Which is to say, not good. Opponents of this lineup have figured out that, basically, if you ban Druid, you win. I don’t recommend using this lineup, but if you absolutely must, you do you!

Lineup #3 – Druid, Hunter, Mage, Rogue

Week 2 Stats
8 Lineups, 2-6 record (25%)
Druid Bans: 2-5 (29%)
Hunter Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Mage Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 0-0 (0%)


Season 10 Stats
10 Lineups, 4-6 (40%)
Druid Bans: 3-5 (38%)
Hunter Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Mage Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 1-0 (100%)


This is a new lineup for Week 2, seeing a huge uptick in representation from Week 1. Two people brought this lineup in Week 1 and it had a very good showing going 2-0 in matches. Unfortunately, that must have been due to small sample size, because as the lineup saw more usage in Week 2 its performance nose-dived sporting a 25% win rate in matches. In overall games, the lineup didn’t fare much better going 13-20 last week winning only 39% of games. I do not recommend this lineup.

Lineup #4 – Druid, Hunter, Mage, Warlock

Week 2 Stats
7 lineups, 5-2 record (71%)
Druid Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Hunter Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Mage Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Warlock Bans: 3-1 (75%)


Season 10 Stats
10 lineups, 7-3 (70%)
Druid Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Hunter Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Mage Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Warlock Bans: 4-1 (80%)


We have another new entry for Week 2 with Druid, Hunter, Mage and Warlock. This lineup performed very well, albeit with a small sample size. It was brought 3 times in Week 1 and then more than doubled its representation in Week 2 and managed to maintain the same level of performance, which likely bodes well for future usage. There doesn’t appear to be a consistent way to ban this lineup, although we have a small sample size on bans, so it’s tough to say one way or the other. That said, half of the matches this lineup has appeared in have done so with a Warlock ban, and it has gone 4-1 in those matches, so perhaps Warlock is not the best ban strategy. I think we need to see more from this lineup to make a definite call on whether it’s good, but early returns are great!

Lineup #5 – Druid, Hunter, Paladin, Rogue

Week 2 Stats
6 lineups, 4-2 record (67%)
Druid Bans: 2-2 (50%)
Hunter Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Paladin Bans: 0-0 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 1-0 (100%)


Season 10 Stats
11 Lineups, 8-3 record (73%)
Druid Bans: 4-3 (57%)
Hunter Bans: 2-0 (100%)
Paladin Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Rogue: 1-0 (100%)


While this lineup wasn’t the top performing lineup last week, it was still very good. It saw its representation increase by one compared to last week, and while the performance dropped a bit, the overall numbers are still quite good. There are no reliable ban strategies, although a Druid ban appears to be the least, worst choice. That said, there isn’t really enough data on the other ban choices to make a definitive judgement, and this lineup has only been used 11 times, so there is a very small sample size to work with here. But if it continues to perform next week, this should be a serious consideration. It’s worth noting that the two losses are both coming from Team DadLegend and yours truly…*sad-trombone*

Lineup #6 – Druid, Rogue, Warlock, Warrior

Week 2 Stats
5 lineups, 5-0 record (100%)
Druid Bans: 2-0 (100%)
Rogue Bans: 0-0 (100%)
Warlock Bans: 1-0 (100%)
Warrior Bans: 2-0 (100%)


Season 10 Stats
12 lineups, 7-5 (58%)
Druid Bans: 2-2 (50%)
Rogue Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Warlock Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Warrior Bans: 4-1 (80%)


If you remember from last week, this was one of the popular lineups and was also the worst performing lineup from Week 1, sporting a 2-5 record in matches. But then last week it somehow achieved a 100% win rate! Unbelievable! I really can’t say too much here, because Team DadLegend faced this exact lineup twice and lost twice last week. Warrior is generally viewed as one of the more polarizing classes in the format, so it seems fitting that the lineup with Warrior would go from literally the worst performance in week 1, to literally the best performance in week 2. Who knows if this lineup is actually good, but I can tell you that I certainly don’t want to face it again.

Week 2 Class Breakdown

1. Druid (89 Lineups)
2. Warlock (72 Lineups)
3. Rogue (70 Lineups)
4. Hunter (61 Lineups)
5. Mage (37 Lineups)
6. Paladin (22 Lineups)
7. Shaman (17 Lineups)
8. Warrior (15 Lineups)
9. Priest (5 Lineups)


The two tables below show class win rates in matches and overall games from Week 2 and the combined season totals. Take Priest for example, this table is showing how many matches and games every lineup that had Priest in it won and lost. I have ranked them in order of match win rate. As you can see, Priest comes out on top with the best match win rate in Week 2, by virtue of only being used five times. But when you look for Priest in the overall Season table below, it falls to the middle of the pack, because it performed very poorly in Week 1. We now have two weeks’ worth of data and based on the overall class popularity and win rates, this meta is still very unbalanced with low diversity. I continue to believe that Blizzard will institute some balance changes in the near future.

Week 2 Class Win Rates

Conclusion

It should continue to not be much of a surprise to see Druid, Hunter, Rogue and Warlock remain as the four most popular classes, and as the most popular four-class lineup. While Warlock had a rough week 1, it rebounded quite nicely in Week 2, sporting the 2nd best win rate of the week. But it still has a sub-50% win rate on the season. On the flipside, Mage had the best win rate in Week 1, then saw an uptick in usage and fell hard to the bottom of the list in Week 2. What a swing! Mage now sits at 50% on the season. One of Mage’s best matchups is against Warlock, but unfortunately, Warlock saw a slight down-tick in usage in Week 2, which probably contributes a little bit to Mage’s decline in win-rate. Or maybe Mage just isn’t very good in this meta and the Week 1 stats were inflated due to variance in a small sample size. Who knows? Meanwhile, Druid, Hunter and Rogue are three of the four most popular classes and are holding onto the top three win-rates as well, and for good reason as they all have some of the most powerful decks in the current meta.


With the most popular lineup declining slightly in Week 2, I’ll be curious to see if its representation drops as well. As people continue to look for ways to counter the top four classes, we will more than likely see some new lineups pop up next week. So, it will be fun to discover how the THL meta evolves week in and week out. The last table below is a list of the other lineups (with total season stats), that were brought by at least 2 people in week 2, but that were not quite as popular as the lineups above. Perhaps there’s a diamond in the rough down there. Until next week, good luck and have fun!


-Altenberg

Week 2 – Other Lineups (Total Season Stats)