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          • Purple - Past Weeks >
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        • Hero S10 >
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        • Hero S11 >
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        • Hero S12 >
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        • S13 Previous Weeks >
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Ragnaros X Lineup Trends - Week 8

10/23/2018

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Altenberg is back!  He ran the numbers, so you don't have to.

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Did you miss Lineup Trends the past few weeks? While I had plenty of IRL stuff going on that prevented me from running the Lineup Trends analysis for you all the past few weeks, I can say with confidence that the THL meta-game from weeks 5-7 was pretty much the same as it was during weeks 1-4, so you weren’t missing much. But Week 8 was our first set of games played with the new meta!  Huzzah! That surely means the THL landscape will look completely different, right? RIGHT!?!?!?.....right…? Well, sorry to say, nope. The most popular four classes in week 8 were the same as before the nerfs: Druid, Hunter, Rogue and Warlock, and that also happens to be the most popular lineup from Week 8 too. Lineup diversity remained stagnant as Week 8 saw only 27 unique lineups, right on par with Weeks 1-7.  So, welcome your new meta-game overloads, because they are the same as the previous overlords. Mmm, can you taste that? That is the taste of a stale meta-game that has been using the same decks and classes for about seven months straight.


Ok, perhaps that is overgeneralizing a little bit, because there was one sort of new development in Week 8 that is probably a direct result of the balance changes, and that is the rise of…Shaman!  During the pre-nerf meta-game, Shaman represented only a small percentage of the classes used, ranked as the 7th most popular class.  But in Week 8, it jumped up to 5th in the ranking, nearly doubling its appearance rates, and was a significant part of the 2nd most popular lineup: Druid-Hunter-Shaman-Warlock. There was also a slight decline in both Rogue and Mage, the two classes perhaps hardest hit by the nerfs. I wrote a super-secret article about my prediction for the post-nerf meta, exclusively for the #DadLegend team discord, which you can read right here.  In it I said the following:


“…I do think that the post-nerf Boomsday meta will probably end up looking even more like the old Witchwood meta than it already does now. By removing the single most impactful card from the new expansion from the game, it stands to reason that the meta would shift back towards what it was before the expansion came out in the first place.  I’m not sure that newer decks like Odd Warrior, Toggwaggle Druid, Secret Hunter and Mecha’thun decks will be enough to push the post-nerf meta in a new direction, even if they all survive the nerfs. In looking back at THL data, the four most popular classes during Witchwood were Druid, Warlock, Rogue and Hunter with Shaman and Mage close behind. In fact, the most popular lineup in Witchwood was Druid-Hunter-Rogue-Warlock. Not much changed during Boomsday, except that Druid-Hunter-Rogue-Warlock became even MORE popular. So, despite the fact that Giggling Inventor might disappear from the meta almost entirely, I expect more of the same as far as class popularity goes in THL.”


The early returns of the post-nerf meta are proving that sentiment to be correct, especially here in THL. So, if everyone was hoping the nerfs would cause a shake-up in the meta and break the 7-month stale-ness of the Hearthstone meta, I’m afraid these few nerfs were not enough to have an impact, at least in the early going. What follows are the 4 most popular lineups from Week 8.


Popular Week 8 Lineups
Lineup #1 – Druid, Hunter, Rogue, and Warlock
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Week 8 Stats
23 lineups, 13-10 record (57%)
Druid Bans: 6-9 (40%)
Hunter Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Rogue Bans: 3-0 (100%)
Warlock Bans: 4-0 (100%)

This has been the “Level 1” lineup for over 7 months straight in the hearthstone meta-game, and it is showing no signs of slowing down. The two worst ways to ban this lineup in the pre-nerf meta were Rogue and Warlock, and that proved to be true with a small sample last week as well. If there were any fears that the nerf to Giggling Inventor would weaken Quest Rogue and make the class less viable in the THL format, well, those fears seem to have been a slight overreaction.  Besides, Rogue has access to other control-killer decks in Kingsbane, Pogo and Miracle rogue decks, even if Quest Rogue disappears. And I hate to say it, but it doesn’t appear that it’s going to disappear completely. While Quest Rogue usage has been cut nearly in half on the ladder since the nerfs, according to HSReplay, it’s still making up 1% of the ladder meta (2% at legend). It. Just. Won’t. Die.

Lineup #2 – Druid, Hunter, Shaman, Warlock
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Week 8 Stats
19 Lineups, 10-9 Record (53%)
Druid Bans: 2-1, (67%)
Hunter Bans: 2-4 (33%)
Shaman Bans: 5-0 (100%)
Warlock Bans: 1-4 (20%)

This is a new lineup that swaps out Rogue for Shaman and was very popular last week.  I can understand why players might want to make the swap…I would know, I used the lineup last week! If players were worried about the viability of Rogue’s flexibility with a nerf to Quest Rogue, Shaman offers similar flexibility with access to a good aggro choice in Even Shaman and a decent anti-control option in Shudderwock Shaman. While this lineup technically had a winning week, it sits awfully close to breaking even.  And if you look at Shaman as a whole last week, it performed pretty terribly as a class. It remains to be seen if this will remain a viable choice going forward, but for one week at least, Shaman saw some interest from THL.

​Lineup #3 – Druid, Hunter, Paladin, Rogue
Picture
Week 8 Stats
6 lineups, 4-2 record (67%)
Druid Bans: 1-1 (50%)
Rogue Bans: 3-1 (75%)

This lineup is very interesting in that when you compare it to the Level 1 lineup above, it swaps out Warlock for Paladin.  On the surface, this seems like a bad move, because Paladin had an ABYSMAL week last week, winning only 23% of it’s matches.  However, most of what few wins Paladin was able to muster, came in this exact lineup. Paladin matches up very well against Hunter and Rogue, two of the most popular classes in THL, so in the right lineup and with the right bans, maybe this lineup has some potential.  I’m surprised that not one opponent decided to ban Paladin last week. With Giggling Inventor no longer in the meta, Odd Paladin sits atop the ladder with the best win-rate over the past few days according to HSReplay, so it might be a decent ban choice.

Lineup #4 – Druid, Rogue, Shaman, Warlock
Picture
Week 4 Stats
6 Lineups, 4-2 record (67%)
Druid Bans: 3-1 (75%)
Rogue Bans: 0-1 (0%)
Shaman Bans: 1-0 (100%)
This lineup had been a mildly popular choice in the early part of the season, but was not terribly impressive.  During weeks 1-4 it had a 41% win rate through 17 matches. But last week it performed quite well, which makes this the second lineup with Shaman that did well (despite the class as a whole performing poorly). When you compare it to the Level 1 lineup it swaps out Hunter for Shaman.  This is an interesting choice as it gives this lineup access to many flexible archetypes and can go straight aggro, straight anti-control or a mixture of the two. It can even go off-meta a little bit, or mid-range, or whatever it needs to. This lineup could have some potential going forward.

Week 8 Class Breakdown
As I mentioned before, there was a little bit of a shake-up in class popularity last week, at least in the middle of the ranking.  The top four classes are still locked in: Druid, Hunter, Warlock and Rogue (although the order has changed). But Rogue and Mage did see a pretty big drop in popularity, while Shaman saw a pretty big increase.  Paladin saw a little bit of a boost as well. Here are the most popular classes from last week sorted by total lineup appearances:

1. Druid (95 Lineups)
2. Hunter (78 Lineups)
3. Warlock (76 Lineups)
4. Rogue (50 Lineups)
5. Shaman (39 Lineups)
6. Paladin (26 Lineups)
7. Mage (11 Lineups)
8. Priest (10 Lineups)
9. Warrior (7 Lineups)

The table below shows class win rates in matches and overall games from Week 8, sorted by Match Win-rate.  As you can see while Mage dropped a bunch in popularity, it had an incredible showing as a class. Paladin had an equal, but opposite performance. Take it with a grain of salt though (small sample size alert!).

Week 8 Class Win Rates
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Conclusion
While I was hoping that the balance changes might bring about some significant changes in the meta-game and shake things up, it would appear that the early returns are suggesting that it is regressing back to something resembling the Witchwood meta and that large-scale changes probably won’t happen. Still, it’s been less than a week since the nerfs, so there still could be some shifts and new decks that pop up.  In the meantime, take some solace in the fact that the Shaman class at least made things interesting for Week 8. Until next time, good luck and have fun
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    The THL blog is curated and edited by Donde. All THL members are welcomed and encouraged to pitch ideas for articles they would like to see on the site. If you have an idea, please reach out to us on Discord at Donde#4239 or via the THL Help email address: help@teamhearthlegends.com

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      • Purple S18 - Current Week
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      • Black S9 - Current Week
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      • Brown S6 - Current Week
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      • Legacy Past Seasons >
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        • THL S4 >
          • Schedule
          • THL s4 Week 1
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        • THL S5 >
          • THL s5 week 1
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          • THL s5 playoffs quarterfinals
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        • THL S6 >
          • THL S6 >
            • THL s6 week 1
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          • Schedule
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        • THL S7 >
          • THL S7 Stats
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          • THL S7 Archive >
            • THL s7 week 1
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            • THL Deckselect Test W1
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        • Rag S8 >
          • Ragnaros S8 Schedule
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          • Ragnaros S8 Stats >
            • Ragnaros S8 Stats
            • Ragnaros S8 Stats Dashboard
        • Rag S9 >
          • Ragnaros S9 Week 1
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          • Ragnaros S9 Week 3
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          • Ragnaros S9 Week 11
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          • Ragnaros S9 Stats
          • Ragnaros S9 Stats Dashboard
        • Rag S10 >
          • Rag S10 Awards
          • Rag S10 Weeks >
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 1
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 2
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            • Ragnaros S10 Week 4
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            • Ragnaros S10 Week 7
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 8
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 9
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 10 - QF
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 11 - SF
            • Ragnaros S10 Week 12 - Finals
        • Legacy S11 >
          • Week 1 - Gold
          • Week 1 - Red
          • Week 2 - Gold
          • Week 2 - Red
          • Week 3 - Gold
          • Week 3 - Red
          • Week 4 - Gold
          • Week 4 - Red
          • Week 5 - Gold
          • Week 5 - Red
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          • Week 6 - Red
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          • Week 7 - Red
          • Week 8 - Gold
          • Week 8 - Red
          • Week 9 - Gold
          • Week 9 - Red
          • Week 10 - Gold
          • Week 10 - Red
          • Week 11 - Gold
          • Week 11 - Red
          • Legacy S11 Player Stats
        • Legacy S12 >
          • Legacy S12 Player Stats
          • Red Past Weeks >
            • Red - Week 1
            • Red - Week 2
            • Red - Week 3
            • Red - Week 4
            • Red - Week 5
            • Red - Week 6
            • Red - Week 7
            • Red - Week 8
            • Red - Week 9
            • Red - Week 10
            • Red - Week 11
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          • Gold Past Weeks >
            • Gold - Week 1
            • Gold - Week 2
            • Gold - Week 3
            • Gold - Week 4
            • Gold - Week 5
            • Gold - Week 6
            • Gold - Week 7
            • Gold - Week 8
            • Gold - Week 9
            • Gold - Week 10
            • Gold - Week 11
            • Gold - Week 12
        • Legacy S13 >
          • Past weeks >
            • Legacy S13 - Red W1
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            • Legacy S13 - Red W2
            • Legacy S13 - Gold W2
            • Legacy S13 - Red W3
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            • Legacy S13 - Red W4
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            • Legacy S13 - Red W5
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            • Legacy S13 - Red W6
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            • Legacy S13 - Red W7
            • Legacy S13 - Gold W7
            • Legacy S13 - Red W8
            • Legacy S13 - Gold W8
            • Legacy S13 - Red W9 QF
            • Legacy S13 - Gold W9 QF
            • Legacy S13 - Red W10 SF
            • Legacy S13 - Gold W10 SF
        • Legacy S14 >
          • Gold - Previous Week
          • Red - Previous Week
          • Gold - S14 W1
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          • Red - S14 W2
          • Gold - S14 W3
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          • Gold - S14 W4
          • Red - S14 W4
          • Gold - S14 W5
          • Red - S14 W5
          • Gold - S14 W6
          • Red - S14 W6
          • Gold - S14 W7
          • Red - S14 W7
          • Gold - S14 W8
          • Red - S14 W8
          • Gold - S14 W9
          • Red - S14 W9
          • Gold - S14 W10
          • Red - S14 W10
          • Legacy S14 Player Stats
          • Legacy S14 Lineup Stats
        • Legacy S15 >
          • Gold S15 - Previous Week
          • Gold S15 - Week 1
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          • Gold S15 - Week 8
          • Gold S15 - Week 9
          • Gold S15 - Week 10
          • Red S15 - Previous Week
          • Red S15 - Week 1
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          • Red S15 - Week 6
          • Red S15 - Week 7
          • Red S15 - Week 8
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          • Legacy S15 Player Stats
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        • S16 Previous Weeks >
          • Gold S16 - Current Week
          • Red S16 - Current Week
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          • Red S16 - Previous Week
          • Gold S16 - Week 1
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          • Red S16 - Week 3
          • Gold S16 - Week 4
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          • Gold S16 - Week 5
          • Red S16 - Week 5
          • Gold S16 - Week 6
          • Red S16 - Week 6
          • Gold S16 - Week 7
          • Red S16 - Week 7
          • Gold S16 - Week 8
          • Red S16 - Week 8
          • Gold S16 - Week 9
          • Red S16 - Week 9
          • Gold S16 - Week 10
          • Red S16 - Week 10
        • Legacy S17 Prev Weeks >
          • Gold S17 - Current Week
          • Red S17 - Current Week
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          • Gold S17 - Week 3
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          • Gold S17 - Week 4
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          • Gold S17 - Week 5
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          • Gold S17 - Week 6
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          • Legacy S17 Player Stats
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        • Legacy S18 Prev Weeks >
          • Legacy S18 Player Stats
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          • Gold S18 - Current Week
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          • Gold S18 - Week 8
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          • Gold S18 - Week 9
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          • Gold S18 - Week 10
          • Red S18 - Week 10
        • Legacy S19 >
          • Gold S19 - Week 1
          • Red S19 - Week 1
          • Silver S19 - Week 1
          • Gold S19 - Week 2
          • Red S19 - Week 2
          • Silver S19 - Week 2
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          • Gold S19 - Week 8
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          • Gold S19 - Week 10
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          • Silver S19 - Week 10
          • Gold S19 - Week 11
          • Red S19 - Week 11
          • Silver S19 - Week 11
          • Legacy S19 Player Stats
          • Legacy S19 Lineup Stats
        • Legacy S20 - Previous Weeks >
          • Gold S20 - Week 11
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          • Gold S20 - Week 5
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          • Gold S20 - Week 4
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          • Gold S20 - Week 3
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          • Gold S20 - Week 2
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          • Silver S20 - Week 2
          • Gold S20 - Week 1
          • Red S20 - Week 1
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          • Legacy S20 Player Stats
          • Legacy S20 Lineup Stats
      • Hero Past Seasons >
        • SPL >
          • SPL Week 1
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          • SPL Week 4
          • SPL Week 5
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          • SPL Week 7
          • SPL Week 8
          • SPL Week 9
        • SHL S1 >
          • Schedule
          • SHL s1 Week 1
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          • SHL s1 Week 8
          • SHL s1 Week 9 >
            • SHL Class Selection
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        • SHL S2 >
          • SHL s2 week 1
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          • SHL s2 week 3
          • SHL s2 week 4
          • SHL s2 week 5
          • SHL s2 week 6
          • SHL s2 week 7
          • SHL s2 semifinals
          • SHL s2 final
          • SHL Class Selection
          • SHL Results
        • SHL S3 >
          • SHL S3 >
            • SHL s3 week 1
            • SHL s3 week 2
            • SHL s3 week 3
            • SHL s3 week 4
            • SHL s3 week 5
            • SHL s3 week 6
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            • SHL s3 Semi Finals
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          • Schedule
          • Teams
          • Players (Sorted by Name)
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        • SHL S4 >
          • SHL s4 week 10
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          • SHL S4 Teams
          • SHL S4 Schedule
          • SHL S4 Archive >
            • SHL s4 week 1
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            • SHL s4 week 3
            • SHL s4 week 4
            • SHL s4 week 5
            • SHL s4 week 6
            • SHL s4 week 7
            • SHL s4 week 8
            • SHL s4 week 9
        • Sylv S5 >
          • Sylvanas S5 Teams
          • Sylvanas S5 Schedule
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 1
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 2
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 3
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 4
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 5
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 6
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 7
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 8
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 9
          • Sylvanas S5 Week 10
          • Sylvanas S5 Stats >
            • Sylvanas S5 Stats
            • Sylvanas S5 Stats Dashboard
        • Sylv S6 >
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 1
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 2
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 3
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 4
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 5
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 6
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 7
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 8
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 9
          • Sylvanas S6 Week 10
          • Sylvanas S6 Stats
          • Sylvanas S6 Stats Dashboard
        • Sylv S7 >
          • Sylv S7 Weeks >
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 1
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 2
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 3
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 4
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 5
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 6
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 7
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 8
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 9
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 10 - QF
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 11 - SF
            • Sylvanas S7 Week 12 - Finals
          • Sylv S7 Awards
        • Hero S8 >
          • Week 1 - Teal
          • Week 1 - Purple
          • Week 2 - Teal
          • Week 2 - Purple
          • Week 3 - Teal
          • Week 3 - Purple
          • Week 4 - Teal
          • Week 4 - Purple
          • Week 5 - Teal
          • Week 5 - Purple
          • Week 6 - Teal
          • Week 6 - Purple
          • Week 7 - Teal
          • Week 7 - Purple
          • Week 8 - Teal
          • Week 8 - Purple
          • Week 9 - Teal
          • Week 9 - Purple
          • Week 10 - Teal
          • Week 10 - Purple
          • Week 11 - Teal
          • Week 11 - Purple
          • Hero S8 Player Stats
        • Hero S9 >
          • Hero S9 Player Stats
          • Teal - Past Weeks >
            • Teal - Week 1
            • Teal - Week 2
            • Teal - Week 3
            • Teal - Week 4
            • Teal - Week 5
            • Teal - Week 6
            • Teal - Week 7
            • Teal - Week 8
            • Teal - Week 9
          • Purple - Past Weeks >
            • Purple - Week 1
            • Purple - Week 2
            • Purple - Week 3
            • Purple - Week 4
            • Purple - Week 5
            • Purple - Week 6
            • Purple - Week 7
            • Purple - Week 8
            • Purple - Week 9
        • Hero S10 >
          • Past Weeks >
            • Hero S10 - Purple W1
            • Hero S10 - Teal W1
            • Hero S10 - Purple W2
            • Hero S10 - Teal W2
            • Hero S10 - Purple W3
            • Hero S10 - Teal W3
            • Hero S10 - Purple W4
            • Hero S10 - Teal W4
            • Hero S10 - Purple W5
            • Hero S10 - Teal W5
            • Hero S10 - Purple W6
            • Hero S10 - Teal W6
            • Hero S10 - Purple W7
            • Hero S10 - Teal W7
            • Hero S10 - Purple W8
            • Hero S10 - Teal W8
            • Hero S10 - Purple W9 QF
            • Hero S10 - Teal W9 QF
            • Hero S10 - Purple W10 SF
            • Hero S10 - Teal W10 SF
        • Hero S11 >
          • Hero Previous Week
          • Hero - S11 W1
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          • Hero - S11 W3
          • Hero - S11 W4
          • Hero - S11 W5
          • Hero - S11 W6
          • Hero - S11 W7
          • Hero - S11 W8
          • Hero - S11 W9
          • Hero S11 Player Stats
          • Hero S11 Lineup Stats
        • Hero S12 >
          • Hero S12 - Previous Week
          • Hero S12 - Week 1
          • Hero S12 - Week 2
          • Hero S12 - Week 3
          • Hero S12 - Week 4
          • Hero S12 - Week 5
          • Hero S12 - Week 6
          • Hero S12 - Week 7
          • Hero S12 - Week 8
          • Hero S12 - Week 9
          • Hero S12 - Week 10
          • Hero S12 - Week 11
          • Hero S12 Player Stats
          • Hero S12 Lineup Stats
        • S13 Previous Weeks >
          • Purple S13 - Current Week
          • Teal S13 - Current Week
          • Purple S13 - Previous Week
          • Teal S13 - Previous Week
          • Purple S13 - Week 1
          • Teal S13 - Week 1
          • Purple S13 - Week 2
          • Teal S13 - Week 2
          • Purple S13 - Week 3
          • Teal S13 - Week 3
          • Purple S13 - Week 4
          • Teal S13 - Week 4
          • Purple S13 - Week 5
          • Teal S13 - Week 5
          • Purple S13 - Week 6
          • Teal S13 - Week 6
          • Purple S13 - Week 7
          • Teal S13 - Week 7
          • Purple S13 - Week 8 QF
          • Teal S13 - Week 8 QF
          • Hero S13 Player Stats
          • Hero S13 Lineup Stats
        • Hero S14 Prev Weeks >
          • Orange S14 - Current Week
          • Purple S14 - Current Week
          • Teal S14 - Current Week
          • Orange S14 - Previous Week
          • Purple S14 - Previous Week
          • Teal S14 - Previous Week
          • Orange S14 - Week 1
          • Purple S14 - Week 1
          • Teal S14 - Week 1
          • Orange S14 - Week 2
          • Purple S14 - Week 2
          • Teal S14 - Week 2
          • Orange S14 - Week 3
          • Purple S14 - Week 3
          • Teal S14 - Week 3
          • Orange S14 - Week 4
          • Purple S14 - Week 4
          • Teal S14 - Week 4
          • Orange S14 - Week 5
          • Purple S14 - Week 5
          • Teal S14 - Week 5
          • Orange S14 - Week 6
          • Purple S14 - Week 6
          • Teal S14 - Week 6
          • Orange S14 - Week 7
          • Purple S14 - Week 7
          • Teal S14 - Week 7
          • Orange S14 - Week 8
          • Purple S14 - Week 8
          • Teal S14 - Week 8
          • Orange S14 - Week 9
          • Purple S14 - Week 9
          • Teal S14 - Week 9
          • Orange S14 - Week 10
          • Purple S14 - Week 10
          • Teal S14 - Week 10
          • Orange S14 - Week 11
          • Purple S14 - Week 11
          • Teal S14 - Week 11
          • Hero S14 Player Stats
          • Hero S14 Lineup Stats
        • Hero S15 Prev Weeks >
          • Hero S15 Player Stats
          • Hero S15 Lineup Stats
          • Hero S15 - Current Week
          • Hero S15 - Previous Week
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