Ragnaros Season 9 – Week 6 Lineup Trends
Nothing but sweet sweet words from Altenberg to help you break down the THL meta.
Welcome to another edition of THL Lineup Trends! This week’s article will dissect week 6 of Ragnaros Season 9. Week 6 happened fresh on the heels of Dreamhack Austin (which is LHS format and not relevant to Ragnaros’s Conquest format) and class submission deadline happened right before HCT Seoul (which is relevant to Conquest format). But we were heading into our third week post-balance changes and hoping for some more trends to emerge. Spoiler alert: the meta is still incredibly diverse, but there is a budding meta beginning to form. We had 96 qualified lineups last week, which is a big improvement with only a few DQs! Let’s keep it up! Of those 96 lineups, 43 of them were unique which was on par with the diversity of Week 5. While there hasn’t been much consensus in which classes are the most popular the previous two weeks, we finally had four classes rise to the top last week. The four most popular classes in Week 6 were Druid (85), Warlock (72), Rogue (54), and Hunter (48). It just so happens that those four most popular classes also formed the most popular lineup. Not only was it the most popular lineup, but it was the first statistically significant popular lineup we’ve had in a single week since the nerfs (more on that below). Warrior and Shaman were also mildly popular as the 5th and 6th classes showing up in 36 and 32 lineups respectively. But Mage, Priest and Paladin were not very popular at all having been brought only 29, 17 and 14 times respectively. So there appears to be a bit of a class meta forming even if we don’t quite have any dominant lineups yet.
I was once again able to identify six unique lineups from Week 6 that were brought by at least five different people. While these lineups and their accompanying stats are listed below, keep in mind that most of these lineups have been brought less than 15 times on the season so far, so we continue to deal with small sample sizes. Week 6 stats are in bold, and total season stats are included in italics. “Total Season Stats” are only those stats that have accrued since the balance changes (so Week 4 onwards).
Popular Week 6 Lineups
15 lineups, 36-37 record (49%), added 2.9 points per team
Post-Nerf Season Stats: 18 lineups, 45-37 (55%), added 3.1 points per team
Druid Bans: 27-22, 55%
Hunter Ban: 3-0, 100%
Rogue Ban: 3-0, 100%
Warlock Bans: 12-15, 44%
The most popular lineup from Week 6 was brought by fifteen different people and featured the four most popular classes as well. It was the first time since the balance changes that we’ve seen a single lineup brought by more than nine people. Unfortunately, it didn’t have a great week and ended up roughly 50-50. It went 7-8 in its matches overall last week and won 49% of its individual games. But it was brought twice in Week 5 and once in Week 4 where it went 9-0 in those games. So those previous week stats are boosting the overall season stats a little bit. Druid was the most popular ban in Week 6, banned by 10 different people, but the lineup did quite well in that scenario going 27-22 in games (55%). Five people banned Warlock last week and the lineup really suffered, going only 9-15 in that scenario (38%). No one banned Rogue or Hunter last week, but a few people tried banning Rogue and Hunter in previous weeks and the lineup swept in those scenarios. Based on what little data we have; a Warlock ban seems like the best strategy to counter this lineup. I’m undecided about whether this should be a good lineup for the future and it needs some more data before a decision can be made. Overall, this lineup is 10-8 in its matches though, so who knows.
6 lineups, 18-9 record (67%), added 4 points per team
Post-Nerf Season Stats: 11 lineups, 30-16 (65%), added 3.6 points per team
Druid Ban: 12-6, 67%
Shaman Bans: 9-5, 64%
Warrior Ban: 3-1, 75%
Warlock Bans: 6-4, 60%
This lineup showed up in Week 5 as a popular lineup and was also a brand new entry that week. It had a great showing in Week 5 and it grew slightly in popularity in Week 6 where it continued to have a great showing. It has maintained an impressive game win rate over the past 2 weeks and is currently 10-1 in its overall matches. While that is a great record, keep in mind that it’s a very small sample size. In looking at the ban data, there just doesn’t seem to be a reliable way to counter this lineup, although banning Warlock technically gives it the lowest win rate. There could be some definite potential here, and if this lineup has another good showing next week, then this will be a lineup that is not one to overlook.
6 lineups, 12-14 record (46%), added 2.3 points per team
Post-Nerf Season Stats: 9 lineups, 18-19 (49%), added 2.4 points per team
Hunter Ban: 3-2 (60%)
Shaman Bans: 6-8 (43%)
Warlock Bans: 9-9 (50%)
This lineup was brought by 3 different people in Week 5, and then doubled its popularity last week to find it’s way onto the list. It seems to combine both lineups above in that it has Druid and Warlock and uses Hunter (from Lineup #1) and Shaman (from Lineup #2). Unfortunately, it didn’t have a great showing last week going only 2-4 in its matches and winning only 46% of its games. Overall on the season, it’s only 4-5 in matches. Interestingly, no one tried banning Druid, but it didn’t seem to matter when the Shaman and Warlock bans seemed to be effective counters. There’s probably not much to see here.
5 lineups, 10-8 record (56%), added 2.6 points per team
Druid Bans: 7-4 (64%)
Rogue Bans: 3-4 (43%)
This was a brand new lineup in Week 6, not seen in any previous weeks and was also unique in that it didn’t feature the Warlock class. Not only did it have a winning games record, it also went 3-2 in its matches overall. As a new lineup with only 5 appearances, don’t go overboard and take this data with the tiniest of salt grains. But there could be something here. Somewhat surprisingly, Rogue bans seemed to be the best way to counter this lineup.
5 lineups, 10-14 record (42%), added 2.2 points per team
Post-Nerf Season Stats: 11 lineups, 26-22 (54%), added 2.7 points per team
Druid Bans: 7-6, 54%
Hunter Ban: 13-14, 48%
Mage Ban(?): 3-2, 60%
Warlock Ban: 3-0, 100%
This lineup is very similar to Lineup #2 above, except it swaps out Shaman for Hunter. This was also a popular lineup in Week 5 and had a great showing. Unfortunately, it didn’t fare so well last week winning only 42% of it’s games and going 1-4 in its matches. Swapping out Shaman for Hunter didn’t seem to be such a good idea last week. So overall it has had one great week and one bad week. After 11 matches on the season it is only 5-6 in matches with a 54% game win rate, and that win rate seems “middle of the road” to me. We’ll have to see if this lineup continues to be a popular going forward.
5 lineups, 11-10 record (52%), added 2.6 points per team
Post-Nerf Season Stats: 14 lineups, 30-25 (55%), added 2.7 points per team
Druid Ban: 3-1, 75%
Rogue Bans: 8-7, 53%
Warlock Bans: 9-12, 43%
Warrior Bans: 10-5, 67%
This has been a steadily popular lineup since the nerfs, being brought four times in Week 4, and five times in each of the past two weeks. This lineup has also been volatile having completely different results each week. It was bad in Week 4, then great in Week 5 and then merely average last week. So perhaps it’s Week 6 “average” showing is the real identity? Still, it has an 8-6 match record on the season. If you face this lineup, a Warlock ban seems like the best choice based on game win rate data.
Week 5’s Popular Lineups
This was the most popular lineup in Week 5, having been brought by 9 different people. But after going 3-6 in its matches that week and winning only 32% of it’s games its popularity dropped off big time in Week 6. It was brought by only three different people last week and somehow it did even worse going 0-3 in it’s matches and 4-9 in it’s games (31% win rate). After being used in 13 lineups over the first three weeks of the post-nerf season, this just doesn’t appear to be a good combination of classes.
This was a brand new entry in Week 5, being brought by 5 different people and had a pretty bad showing. It won 40% of it’s games and went 1-4. Last week it dropped off in popularity only being brought twice. It split it’s two matches and went 5-3 in games. I don’t think there’s much of anything here either.
3 Lineups, 7-7 (50%), added 3 points per team
Post-nerf Season Stats: 12 lineups, 29-21 (58%)
Druid Bans: 7-5, 58%
Rogue Bans: 9-5, 64%
Shaman Ban: 3-0, 100%
Warlock Bans: 13-11, 54%
While this lineup dropped in popularity last week being brought only three times, it had a great track record the two weeks prior. While it only went 7-7 in games with a mediocre 50% win rate in Week 6, it went 2-1 in matches to bring the overall season stats to 8-4, which is quite good. Warlock seems to be the most effective ban strategy, but Druid is a close second. Either way though, the lineup manages a positive win rate no matter what class is banned, and with 12 lineups represented over the past three weeks it has a growing track record. It will be interesting to see if this lineup picks up in popularity next week. It certainly looks deserving of being used more.
We may finally have a meta forming around the following classes: Druid, Warlock, Hunter and Rogue with a sprinkling of Shaman and Warrior thrown in for spice. There are also a handful of lineups that have been used more than 10 times over the past three weeks and I would expect a few of those to rise to the top in popularity over the coming weeks…just in time for the playoffs!
I’m skipping the “Other Lineups” table this week as I’ve already identified more than 10 different lineups in these articles over the past three weeks and there appears to be a bit of a meta beginning to form. So, until next week, “good luck, and have fun.”
6/13/2018 04:19:39 pm
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