Ragnaros Season 9 – Week 4 Lineup Trends

Ragnaros Season 9 – Week 4 Lineup Trends

How did THL react to the nerfs? Find out on this weeks 
​Ragnaros Season 9 – Week 4 Lineup Trends!

​Ragnaros Season 9 – Week 4 Lineup Trends
by Altenberg
This week’s edition of Lineup Trends will dissect week 4 of Ragnaros Season 9. We enter week 4 in a brand new meta following balance changes. The meta is weird, unsettled and the lineup trends definitely reflect that. I don’t know if it was due to the nerfs or not, but we had an unusually high number of DQs this week. In fact, out of a possible 100 lineups, we only had 90 qualified lineup submissions this week. Let’s get it together people!  Of those 90 qualified lineups that actually played their games, we had HUGE variety with 51 completely different, unique lineups. All nine classes were represented, but there were four classes that separated themselves from the pack. The four most popular classes used were Druid (67 lineups), Rogue (61 Lineups), Warlock (61 lineup) and Mage (55 lineups).  The remaining five classes were brought between 21 and 38 times, roughly half as much as the four popular classes.  Despite this separation in popularity, there were almost no trends to speak of in specific four class lineups. I was only able to identify two specific lineups that were used by a slightly larger number of people that could be labeled as “popular”. The most popular lineup in Week 4 was Druid, Mage, Rogue and Shaman, brought by 9 different people. The 2nd most popular lineup was Druid, Paladin, Rogue, Warlock, brought by 6 different people. It’s worth pointing out that 2nd lineup was also the most popular and effective lineup during the first three weeks of THL.  I find it interesting that so many people decided to roll with it again despite the nerfs that hit all four of those classes. No other lineup was brought by more than 4 different people, so this article will focus on only those two popular lineups. It will take a few weeks for a meta to develop and the stats from these lineups won’t have much meaning for a few more weeks due to small sample sizes.
But just how effective were these popular class combinations and how did the bans affect their win loss records?  The answers to those questions are listed below.  Since we have a brand new meta, the previous three weeks of stats will no longer be used and all stats in this article refer to only Week 4.

Lineup #1 – Druid, Mage, Rogue, and Shaman
9 lineups, 25-15 record (63%), added 3.5 points per team
Druid Bans: 12-7, 63%
Mage Bans: 5-5, 50%
Rogue Bans: 6-0, 100%
Shaman Bans: 2-3, 40%
As I mentioned at the outset, there just isn’t enough data from the first week post-nerfs to draw many conclusions, but this lineup did have an impressive showing. Druid was the most popular ban of this lineup but is was not a particularly effective choice as the lineup still went 12-7 in that scenario. Two people banned Mage, but the lineup only went 5-5 overall in games.  Rogue was also banned twice, but that choice was even less effective than the Druid ban. Lastly, Shaman was banned only once, but the lineup suffered a 2-3 loss.  It remains to be seen if this lineup will gain traction going forward, but there is some potential here. Three of the classes used were part of the four most popular classes brought last week, and Shaman happened to be the 5th most popular class in week 4 as well. I think many folks considered Priest and Warlock to be popular control options in theory-crafting after nerfs (and were popular classes in the recent Titanar Invitational last weekend), but this lineup did not use either class.

Lineup #2 –  Druid, Paladin, Rogue, and Warlock
6 lineups, 12-14 record (46%), added 2.5 points per team
Druid Bans: 9-13, 41%
Rogue Ban: 3-1, 75%
This lineup was the only one that remained popular and survived the nerfs heading into Week 4.  As mentioned above, it was the most popular and effective lineup during the first three weeks of THL before the balance chances.  But unfortunately, it didn’t have a particularly good showing last week. Druid was the most popular ban, and the lineup struggled in that scenario. With Rogue being the only other ban target, opponents likely targeted Paladin or Warlock to great success. I would not be surprised to see this lineup fade in popularity going forward, but it’s hard to guess what will happen. It’s worth pointing out again that all four classes in this lineup suffered card nerfs. Druid had Spiteful Summoner nerfed. Paladin had Call to Arms nerfed. Rogue had The Caverns Below nerfed. Warlock had several cards nerfed: Possessed Lackey and Dark Pact.
Class Breakdown
What follows is a table that considers the overall wins and losses of every lineup that included each class. So, for example, the first class Druid, was included in 61 lineups in Week 4.  Those 61 lineups that included Druid had a combined record of 133-126 and added an average of 2.7 points to each team. As you can see from the table the top 5 classes by win rate and points added were Druid, Mage, Paladin, Shaman and Warrior.

​Conclusion
With a brand new meta thanks to balance changes, I’m not at all surprised to see such massive diversity in lineup choices. And arguably, we have almost no real lineup trends to speak of yet, despite my trying to identify a couple above.  But as we move forward over the next few weeks, I expect some lineups to become more popular and reliable strategies to emerge.
Below are the other lineups that were brought by at least two or more people in Week 4 that were not included above. This will likely be the largest table of its kind this season. I’m sure there are some gems down there that could shine in the coming weeks. Until next week, “good luck, and have fun.”
-Altenberg