Ragnaros Season 8 Finals Week: As It Happened

​Welcome, one and all of THL, to a very special piece of analysis, marking another successful Championship come to an end. Following on from the week of action between underdog story Team Xnergy and potent newcomers the Spicey Boys, BlueSpartan1437 watched every moment of every game, breaking each match down from a statistical standpoint, with stats courtesy of Vicious Syndicate and HSReplay. So, without further ado, read on my brethren, for some wonderfully in-depth analysis of a fantastic week of Hearthstone.
-rebobson

Match 1 Analysis: Ridiculous (Spicey Boys) vs. Crovan (Team Xnergy

​Tuesday night was the first match of the Season 8 Ragnaros League Finals, and a battle between the 3 seeds. For the Spicey Boys we had Ridiculous (5-0); while playing in just less than half his team's matches, Ridiculous had turned in dominant performances. For team Xnergy we had Crovan (7-4). As we might expect from a team in the finals, Crovan also had a very successful season.

Chart Overview:        
Although many of the potential matchups were close to 50/50, this match would clearly come down to whether Crovan could get a win with his Hunter or Ridiculous could get a win with his Mage. In Conquest format, to win the match a player must secure wins with each of their 3 unbanned decks; this requirement leads to a practice known as targeting, when a player tries to make it difficult for one of their opponent's specific decks to win. Overall, Crovan had an approximate 17% chance to sweep Ridiculous’ Mage, as we can see from the ‘Lockout Chance’ column. Ridiculous had around a 16% chance to sweep Crovan’s Hunter (perhaps higher due to tech choices, as Secret Hunter is particularly vulnerable to tech inclusions). Seeing the numbers, we can see that even though Ridiculous’ Mage and Crovan’s Hunter had uphill climbs, it was still quite possible to get a win across 3 tries.

Ban Analysis:        
Bans were optimal; Ridiculous needed to ban Warlock to protect his Big Spell Mage. (If he had brought Secret Mage, that would have changed things.) Meanwhile, Crovan’s lineup was ill suited to deal with Paladin, although his ban was not as critical since his decks were primarily targeting Mage.

Match Summary:        
Game 1:    Crovan’s Spiteful Druid (W)     vs. Ridiculous’ Spiteful Priest (L)
Game 2:    Crovan’s Secret Hunter (L)      vs. Ridiculous’ Control Warlock (W)
Game 3:    Crovan’s Spiteful Priest (W)    vs. Ridiculous’ Big Spell Mage (L)
Game 4:    Crovan’s Secret Hunter (W)     vs. Ridiculous’ Big Spell Mage (L)

Both players made reasonable decisions about what deck to open with. It was interesting that Crovan did not open with his strongest deck (Priest), but one nearly as strong that was favored vs. his opponent's strongest. Crovan’s Druid included elementals, providing extra burst with the inclusion of Blazecaller. Generally this deck is favored vs. Spiteful Priest, due to the Druid's ramping of Mana Crystals allowing them to play big cards sooner, and superior card draw via Ultimate Infestation. It paid off, leading to an opening win. However, I do disagree with Crovan’s choice to queue Hunter (his weakest deck) in game 2 instead of Priest. His Hunter never seemed to have a chance against the Warlock after a series of unfortunate discards, both from his own Tracking and Ridiculous’ double Gnomeferatu. Soon Crovan’s Kathrena was out of Recruits, and the series was quickly tied 1 game apiece. For game 3, Ridiculous decided to follow up with his weakest deck, forsaking the possibility that he might have gained some momentum by winning the Priest mirror match (or better yet might have queued into the Hunter for a highly favored match). The Mage deck just seemed outclassed in both remaining games, despite playing Frost Lich Jaina in both games. Spiteful Priest just had too many big threats, culminating in a 12/12 Deathwing that was never removed from play. Then, in game 4, Crovan’s Hunter’s big minions provided consistent pressure which allowed a surprisingly patient King Krush to hit a newly minted Frost Lich Jaina for exact lethal to finish off the match.

In the end, Crovan’s anti-Mage lineup prevailed, providing two decisive wins to complete the match. From a PR perspective this may have been an upset, but in this case the matchup chart seemed to dictate the outcome.

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/241036820       

Match 2 Analysis: IronFIRE (Spicey Boys) vs. JRJuggernaut (Team Xnergy)
​

Saturday afternoon marked the second match of the Season 8 Ragnaros League Finals, and a battle between the team’s 2 seeds. For team Spicey Boys, we had IronFIRE (7-3). With a 70% match win rate and 54% game win rate, IronFIRE was a strong performer all season. For team Xnergy we had JRJuggernaut (4-7). JRJuggernaut had struggled a bit this season but had largely played as 1 seed, until being overtaken during the playoffs.
​

Chart Overview:
Arguably, IronFIRE won this match before the first card was even played. He was favored in 7 out of 9 possible matchups, with one of the remaining 2 a Mage mirror. JRJuggernaut would have to be incredibly fortunate to hit his single favorable matchup. From there, his primary path to victory would then have to be to lock out the opponent's Mage. Conversely, once IronFIRE won with his Mage, he would be highly favored to win the match. This series might have turned out differently if JRJuggernaut had chosen to bring Secret Mage, which would instead have been favored in the Mage mirror and against IronFIRE’s OTK Paladin.

Ban Analysis:
JRJuggernaut banned Warlock, but would have been better off banning Priest, which was well positioned against his decks. IronFIRE banned Warlock, which was optimal, as it would have been the worst matchup for each of his non-Warlock decks.


Match Summary:
Game 1:    JRJuggernaut’s Control Priest (W)   vs. IronFIRE’s OTK Paladin (L)
Game 2:    JRJuggernaut’s Big Spell Mage (L)   vs. IronFIRE’s OTK Paladin (W)
Game 3:    JRJuggernaut’s Jade Druid (L)          vs. IronFIRE’s Spiteful Priest (W)
Game 4:    JRJuggernaut’s Jade Druid (L)          vs. IronFIRE’s Big Spell Mage (W)

In a matchup of Control decks, the heavily favored Priest (thanks to some timely steals and board clears) had way too much firepower for the Paladin. This allowed JRJuggernaut to take an early 1-0 lead; it was all downhill from there. Unable to draw either Frost Lich Jaina or Dragoncaller Alanna, JRJuggernaut’s Mage was never able to pressure the Paladin, who drew his entire deck. After a lopsided match, IronFIRE evened the series 1-1. Playing his tech card Skulking Geist on turn 6, while already at a board advantage, put IronFIRE’s heavily favored Priest at an early advantage in game 3. Double Spreading Plague and an ill-advised Duskbreaker led to a board reset on turn 9. The Priest began rebuilding his board and topdecked Spiteful Summoner, while the Druid had two copies of Ultimate Infestation ready to go. The Druid's Malfurion the Pestilent put down Poisonous Spiders to contest the Priest's 4/4 and 10/10, but by using Mind Control on a 1/2 minion, the Priest was able to protect the 10/10 and deal hefty damage to the Druid’s face. Despite attaining 35+ Health, the Druid had no answer for the Priest's big minions, and IronFIRE took his first lead of the match at 2-1. In game 4 it was another deck and another Skulking Geist on 6 for IronFIRE, which put JRJuggernaut’s Druid at a clear disadvantage in an otherwise even matchup. An epic battle led to the Druid going into fatigue. IronFIRE’s Mage ran him out of minions and was able to gain armor to stay out of range of the Druid's hero power. The Druid had no escape from fatigue and no way to kill the Mage. As expected from the matchup chart, IronFIRE completed the match win, 3 games to 1, tying the week’s total score at 5-5.

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242413125 https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242441480

Match 3 Analysis: Cakes (Spicey Boys) vs. DexterHS (Team Xnergy)

Directly after Match 2 on Saturday afternoon was the third match of the Season 8 Ragnaros League Finals, this time a battle between the team’s 5 seeds. Representing the Spicey Boys, we had Cakes (8-3). Cakes was one of the most dominant 5 seeds in THL with a remarkable 68% game win rate. For team Xnergy we had DexterHS (4-7). While struggling at times, DexterHS had put together some solid performances near the season's end.

Chart Overview:
The most striking feature of this match was just how unfavored Cakes’ Warlock was. By banning the only favorable matchup (Paladin), Cakes put himself in a tough spot. On the other hand, Cakes’ Druid and Priest had no major obstacles to victory; which would most likely allow Cakes’ Warlock 3 attempts to claim an unfavored victory. Such a matchup chart often lends itself to a series taking itself to a full 5 games.

Ban Analysis:
Both players chose to ban Paladin. These bans are optimal if both players brought Murloc Paladin; if Cakes brought Dude Paladin, banning Warlock or Priest may have been better.
As the matchup chart shows, DexterHS would never have wanted to ban Warlock.

Match Summary:
Game 1:    DexterHS’ Cube Warlock (L)       vs. Cakes’ Spiteful Priest (W)
Game 2:    DexterHS’ Spiteful Priest (W)     vs. Cakes’ Spiteful Druid (L)
Game 3:    DexterHS’ Secret Mage (W)        vs. Cakes’ Spiteful Druid (L)
Game 4:    DexterHS’ Cube Warlock (L)       vs. Cakes’ Control Warlock (W)
Game 5:    DexterHS’ Cube Warlock (L)       vs. Cakes’ Spiteful Druid (W)

Already favored in the Priest vs Warlock matchup, Cakes obtained both a Doomguard and DK Gul'dan via Curious Glimmerroot and Drakonid Operative in Game 1, then managed to summon both Soggoth the Slitherer and an Obsidian Statue. From this, DexterHS made a curious decision to use his Faceless Manipulator on Cakes’ Soggoth rather than his own Voidlord. DexterHS was able to reset the board with Doomsayer, but only after Cakes managed to steal his Voidlord. With the path clear, Cakes was able to put down some big dragons and kill DexterHS the next turn with the surprise Doomguard. For Game 2, while Spiteful Druid is favored over Spiteful Priest, Cakes had the bad fortune to draw both copies of Ultimate Infestation in his opening hand. However, the Priest did not draw a Spiteful summoner either, and although Cakes had the opportunity to play UI on turn 10, he decided to play double Saronite Chain Gang instead. Alas, the 3 health taunts were quickly killed off by DexterHS’ Duskbreaker, putting Cakes into an unrecoverable position and a tied match score.

Cakes queued into an even more favorable matchup in game 3 with his Druid, with a 60/40 advantage over the Secret Mage. Unfortunately for Cakes, DexterHS drew a dream hand, allowing him to place a Sorceror’s Apprentice, Arcanologist, Kirin Tor Mage, and Kabal Crystal Runner on the board by turn 5. Despite two Tar Creepers and a Deathwing off his Spiteful Summoner, Cakes was simply too far behind to compete with the Mage's hot start. DexterHS went up 2-1. Game 4 was DexterHS’ chance to seal the match as Cube Warlock is generally heavily favored against the Control variety. However, DexterHS was not able to capitalize, despite summoning an incredible 11 Doomguards during the game, playing Skull of the Man'ari on turn Turn 6, as well as being able to duplicate a Cube containing 2 Doomguards at one point. Cakes managed to clear the board (and stay alive) by killing the 2nd Cube with his lone minion and then playing Twisting Nether to kill all 4 Doomguards. Meanwhile, DexterHS, by choosing to delay his Gul'dan, allowed taunts to dilute the pool of resummoned demons. When DexterHS finally played Gul'dan, after Cakes had summoned 3 Voidlords from N'Zoth, only 3 Doomguards emerged. It was too little, too late. Cakes, already ahead in fatigue, cleared most of the board over a few unconventional turns and survived to tie the match at 2-2.

In game 5 Cakes faced a matchup where his Druid was unfavored and again drew both copies of Ultimate Infestation by turn 3, although he did draw several key Mana ramp cards. DexterHS had a Doomguard on board by Turn 6, leaving Cakes’ only option to contest this on board his own Lich King. Rather than trying to remove Cakes’ only threat, DexterHS instead chose to Cube his Doomguard without using Dark Pact and was promptly punished by Cakes’ Spellbreaker. At this point, DexterHS was down to 13 health after heavy use of Life Tap in the early turns, while Cakes had Frostmourne alongside his double Ultimate Infestation and soon drew more damage output in the form of Blazecaller and another Spellbreaker. Now at 3 health, DexterHS had no way to stop the incoming damage. Cakes’ Druid finally prevailed, taking the match at 3 games to 2.

Surprisingly, it was Cakes’ Druid and not his Warlock that struggled to get a win, although these struggles were partly due to bad draws for Cakes and good draws for DexterHS; meanwhile, DexterHS’ Warlock was shut out in all three attempts. Both players seemed to play well, although DexterHS did seem a little uncomfortable with how to play out the Warlock matches, especially in games 4 and 5. Despite a few head-scratching moments, these players did very well for being the lowest seeds on the team and provided a fantastic contest. With the second win of the series, team Spicey Boys took their first series lead, 9 points to 7.

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242441480 https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242449052

Match 4 Analysis: MulletDGAF (Spicey Boys) vs. BoomBoomHall (Team Xnergy)

Sunday evening began with the fourth match of the Season 8 Ragnaros League Finals, and a battle between the 4 seeds. For team Spicey Boys we had MulletDGAF (4-7); the lowest performing member of the Spicey Boys, he did also provide the clinching win in the semifinals vs ATL. For Team Xnergy we had BoomBoomHall (7-4); he was a crucial part of the Xnergy lineup, who based a lot of success on their strong 3 & 4 seeds.

Chart Overview:
Once again, we can see in an overall fairly even match that Jade Druid is vulnerable to targeting. However, we can also see that Big Spell Mage was a relatively weak deck for MulletDGAF, with one heavily unfavored and two practically even matchups.

Ban Analysis:
MulletDGAF chose to ban Warlock, possibly indicating a Big Spell Mage deck and/or Dude Paladin. BoomBoomHall chose to ban Paladin. He didn't need to ban Warlock since he had decent matchups across the chart.

Match Summary:
Game 1: BoomBoomHall’s Jade Druid (L)            vs. MulletDGAF’s Cube Warlock (W)
Game 2: BoomBoomHall’s Murloc Paladin (L)     vs. MulletDGAF’s Spiteful Priest (W)
Game 3: BoomBoomHall’s Murloc Paladin (W)    vs. MulletDGAF’s Big Spell Mage (L)
Game 4: BoomBoomHall’s Spiteful Priest (W)     vs. MulletDGAF’s Big Spell Mage (L)
Game 5: BoomBoomHall’s Jade Druid (W)           vs. MulletDGAF’s Big Spell Mage (L)

BoomBoomHall decided to lead with his Druid: leading with your weakest deck is a strategy I personally disagree with. With back-to-back Possessed Lackeys on turns 4 and 5 and Skull of the Man’ari on 6, MulletDGAF did not allow time for the Druid to mount an upset bid. Unfortunately for BoomBoomHall, his wide board from a turn 7 Medivh was the perfect chance for MulletDGAF to Cube his Doomguard and clear the board with Defile; suddenly the Druid was down to 10 health. From here, it was just a matter of time before the Warlock found lethal. MulletDGAF goes up 1-0. The inclusion of Skulking Geist in MulletDGAF’s Priest indicated he was indeed targeting Jade Druid, but it was BoomBoomHall’s Paladin that got off to a fantastic start in game 2. Only double Duskbreaker by MulletDGAF prevented a blowout. Down to 8 health, MulletDGAF played his 3rd Duskbreaker on turn 9 and pulled an Obsidian Statue to turn the corner. Down on board with no help in hand, BoomBoomHall conceded, putting the Spicey Boys on championship point.

Again in game 3 BoomBoomHall raced to an early lead with an imposing board of Murlocs, getting MulletDGAF down to 12 health. Even though the board was cleared by a high roll on Dragon's Fury, 4 1/1 Plants were created and BoomBoomHall’s Sunkeeper Tarim play brought him down to 5. Only Tarim survived the Mage's next efforts, but Vinecleaver gave BoomBoomHall his first victory of the match. In game 4, an unusual inclusion in MulletDGAF’s Mage deck, Medivh, the Guardian, was met by a timely Acidic Swamp Ooze. Although he was able to then play out Frost Lich Jaina on curve, MulletDGAF was down to 10 health and unable to completely clear the board. BoomBoomHall’s much favored Priest was able to steamroll to a victory, evening the match at 2-2.

For the second straight match we went to game 5. With a slight matchup edge over the Druid, MulletDGAF drew his Skulking Geist into his Mage’s opening hand. Would this card seal another game in this series? MulletDGAF played it on curve, destroying 2 Spellstones and the remaining Jade Idol. Unlike the prior 3 games, BoomBoomHall was the player who had a tough time getting any momentum on the board, despite playing Malfurion the Pestilent on curve. On turn 9, BoomBoomHall finally manage to go five minions wide, delaying MulletDGAF from playing Frost Lich Jaina for fear of lethal damage. Suddenly MulletDGAF was down to 17 health, facing 23 attack on board, and down to a single Meteor for removal; BoomBoomHall now had 10 attack remaining on board. Branching Paths and his hero power provided exact lethal. With the reverse sweep, BoomBoomHall survived and gave team Xnergy a much-needed win to remain in contention. The series was now all tied at 11 points each.

The match came down just as expected to the weakest decks, Jade Druid and Big Spell Mage. Over the course of the season, BoomBoomHall showed himself to be one of the League's premier 4 seeds. Perhaps it was not surprising that a clutch player found a way to pull off the reverse sweep and win a tight series in game 5. Now, the last match between the 1 seeds would be winner-take-all.

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242922863\

Match 5 Analysis: WolfMack (Spicey Boys) vs. Inposition (Team Xnergy)

The final match of the Ragnaros League Season 8 Finals on Sunday evening was, fittingly, between the team’s 1 seeds. Representing the Spicey Boys, we had WolfMack (7-4); WolfMack’s 57% game win rate puts him near the top of the pile for Ragnaros League 1 seeds. Meanwhile, for team Xnergy we had Inposition (6-5); Inposition spent most of the season as the 2 seed but moved up to 1 seed during the Playoffs.

Chart Overview:
OTK Paladin was a big risk for WolfMack and faced an uphill climb except for Mage. Inposition clearly wasn't targeting Control Paladin or he would have brought Secret Mage. This was the third straight match in the series where each player had an equal number of favorable matchups. Inposition had a fair chance to lock out WolfMack’s Priest if he could win or avoid the Priest mirror.

Ban Analysis:
Both players chose to ban Warlock. These were good bans, protecting every deck except possibly the Priests from poor matchups.

Match Summary:    
Game 1:    Inposition’s Control Priest (L)    vs. WolfMack’s Void Ripper Priest (W)
Game 2:    Inposition’s Control Priest (W)   vs. WolfMack’s OTK Paladin (L)
Game 3:    Inposition’s Big Spell Mage (L)   vs. WolfMack’s OTK Paladin (W)
Game 4:    Inposition’s OTK Paladin (L)       vs. WolfMack’s Jade Druid (W)

While Inposition brought a traditional Control Priest, WolfMack’s was a hybrid Combo/Control Priest featuring Void Ripper, giving him a distinct edge in the mirror. Early in the game players traded off Northshire Clerics, eventually graduating to Drakonid Operatives as they jockeyed for position in a near mirror match. Inposition was able to play Skulking Geist in an attempt to stave off the Inner Fire combo, but WolfMack’s deck had too many ways to create lethal after drawing many cards in the early game. WolfMack used his Void Ripper to create a 32/32 Operative to accomplish his OTK and gain a 1-0 edge in the match. Seeking to draw even in game 2, Inposition cleared the board on turn 5 by playing the Consecration he obtained via Drakonid Operative on turn 4, and followed this up with another Operative turn 6. Meanwhile, for the second consecutive game, WolfMack continued to draw cards in search of his combo, although Inposition did prevent one draw by stealing Bloodmage Thalnos. WolfMack played Tirion Fordring on curve, forcing Inposition to use his entire board to clear him, followed the next turn by a 3rd Drakonid Operative. WolfMack followed this up with N'Zoth the Corruptor, unfortunately, the 2nd Tirion was Mind Controlled by Inposition, and WolfMack was suddenly down to 13 health. Sunkeeper Tarim gave WolfMack back board control, and killing off two Plated Beetles gave him an additional 6 armor. Crucially, Inposition was able to use Shadowreaper Anduin and Ashbringer to kill off WolfMack’s Burgly Bully without yielding any coins. WolfMack’s last big minion, Ragnaros Lightlord, was Mind Controlled by Inposition; from here, Inposition was ready with an Uther of the Ebon Blade from Drakonid Operative to close out the game, while his own remained firmly in WolfMack’s deck.        

Enjoying a highly favored matchup in game 3, WolfMack was able to land Burgly Bully on curve, which Inposition eventually cleared after great effort, granting 1 coin. So of course, WolfMack played a 2nd Bully, again proving to be a great nuisance to the spell driven Mage: another coin obtained by WolfMack. This game, WolfMack was able to play Uther of the Ebon Blade, and with 2 coins in hand, put Inposition under immediate pressure to keep the board clear to avoid the OTK. Inposition was forced to play Dragoncaller Alanna with only 3 dragons in an attempt to counter-pressure WolfMack, but the board was easily reset with Equality. Inposition’s Doomsayer was rebuffed, forcing him to use Blizzard to clear two tokens, and a questionable decision to Polymorph the next token. Inposition was forced to play Alexstraza defensively, but it was too late. WolfMack drew Auctioneer Beardo and closed the game with his OTK combo. Finally in game 4, in a matchup favored for the Paladin, WolfMack took an aggressive line with his Druid, managing to summon a 5/5 Jade by turn 7. Inposition was able to use Wild Pyromancer + Consecration to nearly clear the board, but WolfMack continued his relentless assault. On turn 9, with double swipe WolfMack took Inposition down to 1 health, unable to both heal and clear the board, although he tried with Uther of the Ebon Blade. Inposition conceded, and WolfMack scored a 3-1 victory to seal the finals for Spicey Boys.    

Notably, only game 4 was won by the unfavored deck. This mild upset, much like breaking serve in tennis, proved conclusive. However, the importance of WolfMack getting a win with his Priest in game 1 cannot be overstated. Both WolfMack’s Priest and Paladin were able to play in their most favorable matchups, leaving only the Druid to get a win in 2 tries. Despite Inposition correctly queuing his best matchup against the Druid, he was unable to force what would have been a fairly even game 5.        

VOD: https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242922863 https://www.twitch.tv/videos/242952388

Final Comments:

Despite drama in individual games, the matchups went as expected. Xnergy, solid in the 3 and 4 seeds all season, got their wins from Crovan and BoomBoomHall. The Spicey Boys, favored according to PR in most of the matches, won the 1, 2, and 5 seeds as they had done for most of the season. Overall, well played to both teams, who provided an entertaining 5 game series to crown the season 8 champion, and congratulations of course to those champions, the Spicey Boys!
-BlueSpartan