Turns out basedinc is good at this whole predicting thing. Let's run it back.
So let’s just toot this little horn I’ve got real quick. I WENT 6-0 LAST WEEK IN PREDICTIONS, BABY! Is basedinc OP? Does she need a nerf? I think that just means my takes were not hot enough. I’m here to tell a story not to read tarot cards.
The stats for each team will be in the following format:
(Record, Total Points, aOPE)
It is of note, the average total is 56.6 and the average aOPE is 169.8.
No more fan-fare. Let’s talk about matches.
The Beard Boys (4-0, 84, 181) vs. Defias Protherhood (0-4, 28, 181)
Forgive me Bearded Ones, I chose FTL as my number one last week but I learned the error of my ways after you demonstrated your power last week. With both the highest total score and the highest aOPE of the undefeated teams, The Beard Boys are unquestionably the team to beat. This is going to be a significant problem for Defias Protherhood, who have struggled to establish any momentum. We can see that Defias Protherhood hasn’t had an easy start to the season, but they haven’t been able to really get their feet under them yet. Their season will likely start to get easier... after this week. The Beard Boys are going to sweep up the competition 20-6.
FTL (4-0, 75, 158) vs. The Unknown (2-2, 58, 178)
This is a little awkward. FTL, look it’s not you. It’s me. I’m sorry I left you for those Bearded fellows, but the season is long and you can show me you want me back with the right performance this week. Unlike that horrible intro, FTL is no joke. I throw around phrases like “team to beat,” but it could easily apply to all of our undefeated teams. FTL is taking on The Unknown who’ve had a harder start than FTL but could easily rise to the top of our leaderboards. The talent on both these teams is just insane. Every member of FTL is 3-1 which would lock them in at the 1 or 2 seed on (nearly) every other team. Most teams would look at that and shudder in terror, but I doubt The Unknown is too worried. All 10 of these players are absolutely stellar and going to put on quite the show. The stats for these teams mean nothing to me this week. This is Hearthstone. You can turn 6 Puzzle Box in the highest competition apparently. And that’s proverbially what’s about to happen here. The Unknown is going to surprise quite a few of you and win it 15-12.
Taste The Rainbow (4-0, 70, 122) vs. Bad to the Bone (2-2, 60, 171)
The last of our undefeated teams Taste The Rainbow has the lowest aOPE of any team coming into week 5. Don’t let that fool you though, this team has just been patiently waiting to take on one of the big boys. This week is that chance Rainbow. Bad to the Bone is on the cusp of breaking out of the middle of the pack and establishing themselves as one of the premier teams. They have solid numbers and are right around the average aOPE. In theory, we can expect them to just keep this pace for the rest of the season. But one thing I know about bad boys is they don’t keep quiet. Bad to the Bone is going to make some noise this week and give Taste The Rainbow their first real test of the season. Both of these teams are hungry for it and it’s definitely going to be a tight one. I’ll side with the righteous this week and say Taste The Rainbow at 14-10.
AEON (2-2, 60, 147) vs. Tap Last (2-2, 57, 162)
Now, we come to the battle for the middle of the leaderboard this week. These two teams are about the same when we look at the stats. AEON with a slight edge in points and a slightly easier schedule so far. Tap Last with 3 fewer points and a tougher schedule. We may never see another match as evenly paired in stats again (/s). But for fans of tight competition, this is unquestionably a win. This is likely going to be the closest match up this week that potentially has some serious playoff consequences for both these teams. Playoff spots are won and lost when these middle of the road teams meet up, and I’m expecting some very passionate play this week. And I do have to note the one wrinkle in this match up. AEON is seeking a permanent sub. How that plays out will be critical in this match. This might be a misplay but I’ll take the stable team Tap Last in a 14-13 nailbiter.
The Menagerie (1-3, 51, 147) vs. Pro-Pain Gang (0-4, 39, 200)
These two teams are struggling to establish themselves this season. The Menagerie is coming in with the second easiest schedule so far to face off against Pro-Pain Gang who has had the second hardest schedule to date. This another case where if the numbers are adjusted to reflect schedule we are likely looking at some pretty evenly matched teams. This is yet another match this week that could go either way. The Menagerie has been rated by the community fairly well so far but has not quite proven themselves. Pro-Pain Gang has conversely been rated poorly so far, but I don’t think has really deserved it. This is going to be a hotly contested match, and I’m sorry Pro-Pain Gang you can definitely call me biasedinc this week. I’m grabbing one of each and building The Menagerie in this battleground for a 13-11 victory.
Top-Hatted Titans (2-2, 51, 201) vs. The Other Guys (1-3, 46, 189)
The two teams finish out our matches for the week. Do not let their modest stats fool you. Top-Hatted Titans have the highest aOPE coming in this week and their points are nothing to scoff at. Could this be a sleeping moderately-sized giant? The Other Guys similarly come in with the third-highest aOPE and some reasonable points on the board. I think that we will see both one of these teams both begin to climb the leaderboard. Top-Hatted Titans will be looking to prove they’re not out of playoff contention just yet. It’s a longer shot for The Other Guys but certainly not impossible. I’m very excited to see what comes from this match, but I think y’all have got a good read on my hand this far in the game. I’m calling Top-Hatted Titans to start their climb here with a 16-10 win.
Dream Stream Matches
First, shout out to everyone who ruined my last week’s matches by making it to Arlington. Also, never cross me again.
TheLiquidOx (FTL) vs. Solojazz (The Unknown)
Ox is possibly the hottest THL player right now. Ox has been competing in high legend and even came in as the 3rd player this month to hit Americas legend. (Shoutout to Tues for 1st). But hot doesn’t mean unstoppable. Solojazz is coming in with the same record as TheLiquidOx and either of them could take this week. Definitely going to be a key match for these two teams.
urmumked (Taste The Rainbow) vs. Eggowaffle (Bad to the Bone)
Shoutout to urmumked for adding me back after a ladder game and being chill without knowing we’ve got THL in common. And Eggowaffle, you’ve got no Arlington to save you from this spotlight. This is our undefeated 1 seed match-up for the highlighted match-ups. This is going to be quite a series and I hope they share it with us.
RidiculousHat (AEON) vs. CmaccompH (Tap Last)
The 1 seed match in our battle of the middle takes place between our beloved commissioner and another Arlington player. Both are battle-tested conquest players. Expect some well thought out decklists and well thought out plays in a match that may determine which of these teams is in playoff position another 5 weeks from now.
Looking over all these matches just reminds me how lucky we are to have this community. Our Pro Format is absolutely stacked with talent (Itachi is a 5 seed? What world is this?). Anything can happen only 5 weeks into this season. I hope you enjoyed the story I’ve woven out of some numbers, but go shatter everything I’ve said. Enjoy the new meta this week and good luck in all of your games.
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