Lineup Trends - All Series

Altenberg is back with his weekly Lineup Trends, and this season he’s working overtime to give you stats on ALL THREE SERIES.  That’s right, last season’s “Best Blogger” award winner is giving you coverage for Legacy, Hero and Pro Series.

I’ve finally made it to summer break, which means I’ve got more free time to crunch some numbers for you all. Since I didn’t want to leave anyone out, this season Lineup Trends is going to briefly cover all three series: legacy, hero and pro. That way, there should be a little bit of something for everyone. The trade-off is that I won’t be going nearly as in depth with the stats on any one series, otherwise this blog post would be insanely long.

Legacy Series
Week 1 of Legacy Series had a distinct lack of variety in the Lineups.  There were only 30 unique lineups brought, but really only two of them saw any real popularity lineups.  The most popular was Hunter-Mage-Rogue-Warrior, brought by 26 people.  The second most popular lineup was Hunter-Rogue-Shaman-Warrior, brought by 16 people. Between the two, the Shaman version vastly out-performed the Mage version. That means 42% of the lineups were one of only two choices. I’ve never seen this much complete lack of diversity after covering the lineups for several seasons now. Rogue, Hunter and Warrior were the three most popular classes with Mage and Shaman in the 4th and 5th spots. Druid saw a little bit of usage, but then Warlock, Paladin and Priest were basically ignored (see table below).

Most Popular Lineup – Hunter, Mage, Rogue, Warrior
Week 1 Stats
26 Lineups
Matches: 13-13 (50%)
Games: 53-54 (49.5%)

Pilot Bans:
Druid: 0-1
Hunter: 2-3
Mage: 1-0
Rogue: 10-9

Opponent Bans:
Hunter: 0-1
Mage: 0-0
Rogue: 3-6
Warrior: 10-6

This lineup struggled a little bit.  Pilots of this lineup chose to ban Rogues far more often than any other class, and the results were a little mixed as the lineup went 10-9 in that scenario. I found it very interesting that not a single pilot chose to ban Warrior, the 3rd most popular class. There could be some better strategy in deciding which classes to ban when piloting this.  Opponents of this lineup banned Warrior the most frequently, but that was the least effective choice. Rogue is the class to ban when facing this lineup, as it only went 33% in matches when its Rogue was banned. 26 matches is quite a lot of data after only 1 week, and returns are mediocre.  Perhaps with some better ban choices this lineup could rebound going forward.  It’s worth pointing out here that the 2nd most popular lineup (swapping out Mage for Shaman), went 10-6 in matches and 41-28 in games, which is significantly better in terms of overall performance.

Hero Series
Week 1 of Hero Series saw the least lineup diversity I’ve ever seen in over 3 seasons of covering Lineup Trends. There were only 29 unique lineups, with only three showing any amount of popularity. The most popular was Hunter-Mage-Rogue-Warrior, brought by 22 people. The second most popular was Hunter-Rogue-Shaman-Warrior while the third most popular was Druid-Hunter-Rogue-Warrior.  See a pattern here? The three most popular classes were Rogue, Warrior and Hunter with Mage, Shaman and Druid all getting a chance as the 4th class. Between the three, the one with Shaman in the flex spot was by far the most effective, going 9-4 in matches and 31-24 in games.

Most Popular Lineup – Hunter, Mage, Rogue, Warrior
Week 1 Stats
22 Lineups
Matches: 8-14 (36%)
Games: 37-49 (43%)

Pilot Bans:
Druid: 1-3
Hunter: 1-3
Rogue: 6-8

Opponent Bans:
Hunter: 1-1
Mage: 1-0
Rogue: 3-7
Warrior: 3-6

In looking at the bans pilots of this lineup made, it is kind of head scratching. Banning Rogue was not effective overall, but certainly a better choice than Druid or Hunter. And it was almost shocking to see Warrior not banned even once.  Opponents of this lineup had equal luck banning Rogue or Warrior, two of the most popular classes in Hero Series. This lineup, while popular, does not seem to be an effective choice.

Pro Series
Data on Pro Series is limited right now, but it should come as no surprise that Rogue is the most popular class in the Specialist format.  What follows is a table showing all data by class.








 






As you can see, while Rogue was the most popular class in Week 1, it was not the most effective choice overall. That distinction goes to Warrior, which also just happens to be the one main counter to Rogue. It makes logical sense that with a Week 1 meta heavily populated by Rogues, that Warrior would stand to benefit. The specialist format is highly dependent on getting a read on your opponent and choosing the right class. When polarized match-ups are involved, if you choose the wrong class it doesn’t matter what five cards are in your sideboards or how many times you play the match-up, the 0-2 outcome will be an inevitability.

Until next week, good luck and have fun!

-Altenberg

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