It's a new year and a new decade if you're one of those people who believes the decade starts on the zero instead of the one. That also means it's time for a new season of THL. A new season always brings new hope. Everyone has zero points and is still in the hunt for the championship. But who is the most likely to win the title in each series? That's what everyone has been talking about since the reveal stream last Friday night.
You saw the initial reactions during the reveal and undoubtedly you will see more coming up on the opening week of talk shows. You'll even get to hear the power rankings on Dan0 and Mattatarms new podcast! (Check it out here).
Let me be clear – THIS IS NOT A POWER RANKING ARTICLE. This is just some statistical analysis. Think of it more as the odds that Vegas would put on any given team to win the championship if you were placing a bet. What you will see below is the average number of wins per player on each team. You'll also see what that averages out to for the team. Some liberties were taken (you'll see in the commentary below). Without further ado, let's start with an analysis of the teams in Legacy.
HOT ZILFS – 4.55 average wins per player
Kols – 5.67
Rebobson – 5
Donde - 5
Statistically the strongest team on paper and 26 seasons of experience among them. Rebobson returns to THL and although this team might not be the best in any single seed, there is no statistical weakness here.
Assssuh Dude – 4.5 average wins per player
Snake – 5.5
iCon – 3
S4nguine (Rookie) – 7 (converted from Hero)
ShinyPants – 4
Meduzas (Rookie) – 3 (converted from Hero)
This team looks strong but provides some question marks in the form of two rookies. As you'll see here we have our first example where I need to pull statistical data from another series. S4nguine played 2 games last season in legacy which isn't really enough to pull meaningful analysis from. She did have a stellar rookie campaign in hero, but that doesn't always translate to a different format. Due to that, this team might be a bit statistically overrated if she is unable to match that high watermark from last season.
DadLegend – 4.22 average wins per player
HonestZaib – 6.33
Mayanadon – 4.75
YellowDart – 4.5
BillSnyder - 3.5
Zaib is pound for pound one of the best players and 1 seeds in THL you never hear about. This lineup can hang with anyone and there is a ton of deep experience here. Has to be considered a title contender without a doubt.
Good Luck Albatrosses – 4.20 average wins per player
LotusKnight – 5.4
Catman1950 – 5.25
Dusharmo – 5.33
ItsMeMikeV – 1.5
Shoebacca – 3.5
Potentially the most overlooked team on the reveal stream. The stats speak for themselves and if MikeV can hold down the 4 seed then this team will be a force in the final month of the season.
Da Stubbs – 4.19 average wins per player
Nate – 5.17
Ozmanaut – 5.14
TheChronic – 4.63
Siege – Rookie
Curufinwe86 – 6
Unlike GLA which was overlooked on reveal night, Da Stubbs might be the most overlooked team every season. Siege is the first true rookie to appear here having no THL experience but the supporting cast surrounding only knows how to win.
Wet Whoa-Men – 4.17 average wins per player
LiquidOx (Rookie) – 4 (converted from Hero)
Dragonrider – 5
JRJuggerlaw – 4.63
Mattyebs – 4.2
QuirkyTurtle – 3
A very balanced team with a lot of the experience coming from the 3 and 4 seeds of JR and Matty. LiquidOx did not fare well in the 4 games of Legacy experience he has (1-3) but we know he can play ball. Dragonrider returns for her second season after a multi-season absence so we'll have to see if she comes back strong. The raw numbers are here, but there are questions to answer.
Dirty Mike and the Boys – 3.89 average wins per player
TonyMontana – 4.6
SirLos – 4.88
Lefty2111 – 4.63
Khell – 1.33
BrushyTuna – 4
32 seasons of experience combined here will make this the most veteran heavy team in Legacy. No player on the team has a winning record but all are very close to .500 which will allow this team to hang in the playoff race all season long. Khell is stepping back into only one series this season so we'll see if that focus can help drive him in what seems like a somewhat wide open 4 seed field.
Toxic Reinforcements – 3.87 average wins per player
TrisHS – 4.33
Icicles – 8
Fischwa – Rookie
Fsorace1 – 6
ChubbsPetersonsHand – 1
What this team lacks in Legacy experience it makes up for in explosive rookie campaigns. Both Icicles and Fsorace1 had two of the hottest rookie seasons in recent memory. Could Fischwa be the next rookie sensation? Even an average season could make this fringe playoff team a title contender.
Saronite Pain Gang – 3.64 average wins per player
Aviously – 5.83
Silentredrt – Rookie
FreeloaderHS – 4
Darkseid – 4.11
Blakmajik – 4.25
Few teams changed as much over the last off season as SPG. A perennial playoff team only one season removed from missing out on the championship by one match, they have reloaded with Avi and a 2 seed rookie. Coming into THL as a 2 seed is often a trial by fire and I think the season might hinge on that result.
4th and Inches – 3.53 average wins per player
Itachi – 4.83
RonMexico – 5
Clarity – Rookie
SuperMurloc – 4.33
RageDopple – 3.5
This team will have one of the best rookie support systems in THL with Itachi and RonMexico. Ron was the crossover player of the season (that's the best performance across all 3 series in a single season for our new readers out there) and Itachi wasn't far behind. I expect this team to outperform the numbers.
Galakronies – 3.38 average wins per player
basedinc – Rookie
TwoStarMako – 3.8
Ghost – 6
BOOZASAURUS – 3.25
Sage – 3.86
This team is intriguing as it has a little of everything. A 1 seed rookie, a former rookie of the season, a superstar 3 seed, a 4 seed who could be competitive in the 1 or 2 and a 5 seed vet with the most experience on the roster. I'm curious what this team dynamic will bring as they are like the pu pu platter of THL.
Team Annoy-O-Team – 3.1 average wins per player
noltown – 2.5
amaj10 – 3.5
Dan0 – 7
Zthund – 2.5
Thefinalrefuge – Rookie
We're starting to head down into significant question mark territory. Dan0 is the most successful player on this team but he only has one season to his credit. I don't think he was a fluke, but we'll need to see if he can shoulder the weight of the sophomore season. Normally one would imagine the 5 seed to be the best place for a rookie to cut their teeth but there are a lot of really strong 5 seeds abound this season.
Pod People – 3.04 average wins per player
RidiculousHat – 5.1
Zerotio – 3.78
Mattatarms – 2.5
Wickedgood – 1.5
Kazootaroot (Rookie) – 2.33 (converted from Hero)
Any team with RidiculousHat cannot be counted out. Wickedgood has struggled in the early seasons of his THL career but by all accounts this is an aberration and we'll hope that he can make “the leap” in season 3 (his second full season).
Always Topdeck Lethal – 2.96 average wins per player
TopDeck – Rookie
Freehongkong (fka Pond) – 4.5
Br1ck – 2
Force of Will – 3.8
DavetheGreat (Rookie) – 4.5 (converted from Hero)
This team has 14 seasons of experience but 10 of them hang on Force of Will's mantel. TopDeck is a pure rookie and DavetheGreat was indeed quite good in his hero experience. Although not without any sort of redemption, the numbers do not appear to paint a picture of a likely playoff squad.
The Misfits – 2.37 average wins per player
the_bigted – 5.5
Craigofcanada – Rookie
Thetowndrunk – 4.13
Mrincredible – Rookie
qUAZ – 2.2
2 pure rookies is a lot (not the most, if you continue forward). Most of the THL experience comes from Thetowndrunk who's 8 seasons is more than the other 4 players combined. He's been away for a bit so we'll see if he kept his skills sharp. Craigofcanada has yet to play a match but has been active in Discord and should be ready to go.
Just Rogue Things – 1.6 average wins per player
c0mp – 3.45
EpicalNoise – Rookie
ekename16 – Rookie
DexterHS – 4.56
nebcanuk – Rookie
Our first roster where the pure rookies outnumber the veterans. The two veterans, c0mp and Dexter have more experience between them than some entire rosters and this team will go as far as they are able to teach the new players.
BYE – 1.2 average wins per player
NoGlocko – Rookie
SnakeFawdz (Rookie) – 0 (converted from Hero)
AgentPWE (Rookie) – 2 (converted from Hero)
ArkhamCookie – Rookie
Disco (Rookie) – 4 (converted from Hero)
The full rookie squad has historically not been great, except when No Pros Here has been involved. Three of these players have THL experience in Hero but it's near impossible to evaluate how they will fare over the long Legacy season.
Not-YJs – 0.4 average wins per player
Slay – Rookie
Aescon – Rookie
Lemons – Rookie
Wrenanne – Rookie
KidEternity – 2
Four pure rookies and KidEternity is another team that I will have a tough time giving any insight to. This will be Kid's first season as a captain as well and I do think he will have his work cut out for him.
To qualify as a rookie a player must have appeared in fewer than 4 weeks of Legacy matches. That means players can technically have a season of experience but still qualify as a rookie if they only subbed or played a small partial season. Let's take a look at who might be the favorites for Rookie of the Season:
LiquidOx – He has been somewhat uneven in his early THL tenure. The initial Legacy output has been subpar at 1-3 but he has been successful in Hero and when the prep is there, the results will be too.
Clarity – Part of a strong run in the ongoing Duo's tourney.
S4nguine – 7 wins in her Hero debut is all you need to know.
There are 26 rookies out there to open the season so we'll check in on them as the season progresses.
If you liked this analysis, you'll be excited to know that Hero and Pro analysis is coming in the next two days.
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