Altenberg takes a look at every Hero Series team and gives them a Preseason Power Ranking based on historical player win rates.
Hero Series teams were revealed last week on Last Saloon Standing (check out the 2-part VODs here and here). The show hosts very kindly went to the effort to Power Rank each of the teams and I took the liberty to average together the four host power rankings into a neat little table and shared that on the THL Discord. In case you missed it, check it out at the bottom.
While I respect the Last Saloon Standing hosts a great deal, and I think their averaged ranking is a decent starting point, there are a number of teams whose ranking lacked consensus (shown with a high standard deviation number) and a few others that I simply disagreed with. To derive as accurate a power ranking as possible, I combed through historical Hero Series stats for every player of every team and used those win-rates to project combined team win/loss records. That lead me to come up with the following Preseason Power Ranking. *Note, historical win-rates do not exclude potential "meme-seasons", take the following with a grain of salt.
1. Diffuse to Dharma - Purple
This team looks solid with three THL veterans in Aviously, Sage and davepetm and two relative newcomers in Wildfire8010 and Jyak, both with only one season of Hero Series under their belts. Aviously is an excellent #1 seed who has a lifetime win-rate of 65% in 3 seasons of Hero Series. Jyak is holding down the #2 seed and had a respectable rookie season going 6-6 in matches. Wildfire is the #3 seed, and he’s coming off an incredible rookie season, going 10-2 in matches. Sage is the #4 seed whose lifetime win rate of 42% after 5 seasons of Hero Series is a little below average. And lastly, veteran davepetm holds down the #5 seed with a very good 58% lifetime win-rate after 3 seasons. This team left only 13 PR on the table and did a very good job maximizing the PR cap. Not only that, but their PR is also distributed evenly between each of the five seeds giving them one of the most balanced teams in the league. Given each player’s historical win-rates I expect this team to be a collective 27-18 in the regular season and sport a team win-rate of 60%, the best in Hero Series.
2. The Cult - Teal
This team is anchored by rising star ClarkHellscream in the one seed, who had an incredible rookie season going 7-3. Alvarkhalon is a rookie to Hero Series, but as the 2-seed he has some serious potential after a 7-3 record in Legacy Series last year (his rookie season over there). Bluejay had a respectable rookie season with a 50% win-rate and holds down the 3-seed. The_bigted is yet another player who put together an incredible rookie season going 7-2, and sits in the 4-seed with 333PR. Finally in the 5-seed is qUAZ, who is the captain of this young team. He had a rough rookie season winning only 20% of his matches. If The Cult can match their level of success from their rookie seasons this has the makings of a power-house team and I project them for a combined team record of 26-19. Take that very high projection with a grain of salt however, because most of this team only has 1 season or less in Hero Series, so there is a very small sample size for this inexperienced team.
3. Tan Pam Surf Slam - Teal
This team is anchored by long-time THL veteran Nate in the 1-seed, who sports a 53% lifetime win-rate through 4 seasons of Hero Series. Durtymike is perhaps over-seeded with a 363PR in the 2-seed, but he maintains a respectable 48% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Ozmanuat is close behind in PR in the 3-seed and could very easily leap-frog over Durtymike later in the season, as he has an absurd 73% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Lefty2111 is the captain and holds down the 4-seed with a lifetime win-rate of 43%, a bit below average. In the 5-seed is Jaxox, who likewise holds a 44% win-rate through two seasons in Hero Series. Despite leaving 157 PR on the table, this is a solidly built roster of veterans that I project to have a combined team record of 24-21.
4. Argent Terminus Legon - Purple
ATL is headlined by Aliensanta, a dominant 1-seed with a lifetime win-rate of 67% through two seasons. The captain Bluespartan is in the 2-seed with his respectable 45% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Apexpredator comes in at the 3-seed, also with a respectable 46% lifetime win-rate through three seasons. As is par for the course, their 4-seed Magmaskull sports a 44% win-rate from his rookie season. They have a promising 5-seed in curufinwe86, who managed a 56% win-rate in his rookie season. This is a solidly built roster who has only 54 PR left in their cap. If Aliensanta can give a few of his teammates some coaching, this team should overperform their combined team record projection of 23-22.
5. TBH JOOD - Teal
TBH JOOD has a relative newcomer to Hero Series in the 1-seed in Itachi. While he’s only played two matches so far, he won them both. Markshire, the captain of the team, is the 2-seed and brings with him a 60% lifetime win-rate through two seasons. Like Itachi, iCon is another newcomer to Hero Series, having only played 1 match so far (he lost) and holds down the 3-seed. FollowDurden is in the 4-seed and after five seasons in Hero Series, he has a slightly below average 43% lifetime win-rate. TheTownDrunk is in the 5-seed with a mere 140 PR, and his five seasons in Hero Series have not resulted in much success, as he has a lifetime win-rate of only 38%. If everyone’s lifetime win-rates hold steady this season, I project this team for a 23-22 record. If Markshire can successfully coach up this team there is a lot of potential with some talented Conquest players to make some noise in the LHS format and they could very easily out-perform this projection.
6. Ugly Mucklings - Purple
The Ugly Mucklings are spear-headed by non-other than ironFIRE, a 550 PR player with a 65% lifetime win-rate in two seasons of Hero Series. The 2-seed is occupied by KD1215, who had a slightly below average rookie season going 4-5 in matches (45% win rate). Appa sits in the 3-seed, a professional player with a 56% win-rate in his rookie season of Hero Series. JerryDamage came out of retirement last season and holds down the 4-seed. After 4 seasons in Hero Series, he brings with him an under-whelming lifetime win-rate of 39%. Finally, in the 5-seed, TheChronic is a virtual unknown as he has played only one match in Hero Series (and lost it). With lifetime win-rates in mind, I would have to project this team for a combined record of 22-23 on the season. But if Ironfire and Appa can successfully coach up the lower seeds, they are well-positioned to out-perform that projection.
7. 65,340,285 Boars - Teal
The Boars are headlined by Smileykris and her 48% lifetime win-rate through three seasons. Rebobson is the Captain though and holds down the 2 seed, a mere 30PR below Smileykris. He is one of two team members with a positive lifetime win-rate, at 55%. Cinder is the three seed, and after three seasons in Hero Series, like Smileykris, he carries with him a lifetime win-rate of 48%. Jaspyr is an excellent 4-seed with 334 PR and a lifetime win-rate of 58% through four seasons. Finally, Brasky rounds out the team in the 5-seed with a surprisingly low 20% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. If all five team members were to maintain their lifetime win-rates (and there’s no reason to think otherwise, since they all have been playing Hero Series for 3-4 seasons now), I project this team for a combined record of 22-23. Seeing as how Smileykris and Cinder are literally a couple match wins away from a positive lifetime win-rate, and Brasky’s seems way too low, I fully expect this experienced team of all veterans to out-perform their projection.
8. Booty Bay Boners - Teal
The BBBs are led by Cary in the 1-seed with his absurd 68% win-rate through three seasons. Jammies holds down the 2-seed with a solid 58% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Their 3-seed is occupied by a rookie, LordDrknss and a 283PR. Darkseid is the captain and 4-seed, with a respectable 47% lifetime win-rate through three seasons. They have another rookie Bee76, whose PR is unknown (they aren’t registered yet). This team has a lot of potential with two very good top seeds, but they are going to have to offer some help and coaching to their lower seeds and rookies if they want to advance this season. I am projecting BBB for a combined record of 22-23, with the potential for a better record given some excellent coaching.
9. Xplosive Sheep - Purple
This team is headlined by a relative newcomer, Thelastchamp, in the 1-seed, who had an excellent rookie season going 8-6. Catman1950 sits in the 2-seed and he had a disappointing rookie season going 3-6 in his matches. Deliver is the 3-seed who has a respectable 50% lifetime win-rate through two seasons. Mattyebs is the captain and veteran 4-seed of Xplosive Sheep with a solid 53% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. They’ve got a rookie in the 5-seed, Xfector, with a PR of 125. This is an up-and-down roster filled with experienced veterans and inexperienced newbies. If the veterans can coach up the newbies, they stand a chance. Based on historical win-rates, I am projecting this team for a combined record of 22-23. They will most likely live and die by their rookie 5-seed.
10. DadLegend - Purple
Team DadLegend is anchored by rookie 1-seed notoriousGHP and their 470 PR. In the 2-seed is Typicaltyrant, who has a slightly below average win-rate of 44% through two seasons. Poker Pro Rizen locks down the 3-seed and maintains an absurd 74% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Yellowdart is the team captain and 4-seed and has a slightly below average lifetime win-rate of 44% through five seasons. They are rolling with another rookie crashcoptr in the 5-seed with a 67PR. DadLegend has an odd mix of veterans and rookies with a middle-heavy lineup, and somehow left 108 PR on the table. If historical win-rates hold true this season, I am projecting them for a 22-23 record. Their rookies will need some coaching, so hopefully their veterans can step up to the plate.
11. AskHS - Teal
AskHS has a potential powerhouse with 1-seed Fuel, who not only has a 545 PR, but also a 75% win-rate in his rookie season. Somehow, they get another top player in Tri holding down the 2-seed with his 535PR and 67% lifetime win-rate through two seasons. Both players made Top 75 in the legend ladder last month. That is where the good news ends, and the bad news begins. Khell is the captain and comes in at the 3 seed with a shockingly low lifetime win-rate of 14% through his rookie season. Yours truly (Altenberg) is the 4-seed and despite an average showing through three seasons of the Conquest format, has a pretty bad lifetime win-rate of only 36% through three seasons of Hero Series. RCIX rounds out the 5-seed with a 38% win-rate in their rookie season. This is a team with two dominant top seeds, and three underachieving lower seeds. If lifetime win-rates hold steady, I project this team for a combined team record of 21-24. That said, if the two top seeds can spend a little time coaching the three bottom seeds, this team could very easily out-perform their projection.
12. Big Deck Bandits - Teal
Big Deck Bandits is anchored by long-time THL veteran, Inposition, who maintains a solid 54% lifetime win-rate through six seasons in Hero Series. Stephieee sits in the 2-seed, although her lifetime win-rate of 35% through three seasons leaves something to be desired. Riots is in the 3-seed and broke even in his rookie season going 5-5. Finnickodare is the captain and 4-seed of this squad who maintains a respectable 50% win-rate through four seasons. Finally DocMcButt sits in the 5-seed and has a slightly below average life-time win-rate of 41% through four seasons. Mysteriously, this team left 261 PR on the table when constructing their team. I project them for a combined team record of 21-24 with the potential for a better record.
13. Team Black Lotus - Purple
Team Black Lotus has a rising star in the 1-seed in Bunnyman1400, coming off a 6-1 rookie season. Rookie Bloodhunter sits in the 2-seed with 441 PR. Another rookie Vmprnighthwk holds down the 3-seed with a 430 PR. Longtime THL veteran Force of Will is the captain and 4-seed of Team Black Lotus, although he maintains a slightly disappointing 39% lifetime win-rate through seven seasons of Hero Series. Yet another rookie Mistelle holds down the 5-seed with 50 PR. This team is going to need the coaching of Bunnyman and the experience of Force of Will to make some noise this season, because their three rookies are pretty much an unknown. I’m going to project them for a 21-24 record, but this could easily go higher or lower.
14. Hero Power Rangers - Teal
The Hero Power Rangers have Britbulldog in the 1-seed who is coming off an excellent rookie season going 7-4. Dusharmo is in the 2-seed and his brings a respectable 47% lifetime win-rate through two seasons. Trymehomie is in the 3-seed and is looking to rebound after a slightly below average rookie season where he went 3-4. THL veteran mattatarms is in the 4-seed and maintains a respectable 47% lifetime win-rate through four seasons. Finally in the 5-seed is virtual rookie TravisChrono who has only 1 prior match under his belt (he won). There is a decent amount of inexperience here and based on historical win-rates I am projecting this team for a record of 21-24.
15. Bomb Voyage - Purple
This team is anchored by a rookie, Bass, who is a complete unknown with a PR of 470. CmaccompH is the 2-seed, another rookie with a PR of 470. DoctorZephyr is a relatively new player to Hero Series, having only played in 2 matches previously (going 1-1). DoctorDr8del holds down the 4-seed, and after guiding Bomb Voyage to a championship last season is looking to repeat with a mostly different team. He maintains a slightly below average lifetime win-rate of 42% through four seasons. Finally, in the 5-seed is a longtime THL veteran, jimphilos, who maintains a slightly below average lifetime win-rate of 44% through seven seasons. Can Bomb Voyage win another championship with what is essentially a brand new team? It’s tough to make a projection for a team with three rookies, but I’m going to project them for a 20-25 record, and if DoctorDr8del can work his magic again, they could do much better.
16. B12 - Purple
B12 is headlined by TonyMontana in the 1-seed who maintains a slightly below average lifetime win-rate of 43% through three seasons. They’ve got a rookie in the 2-seed, Brushytuna, with a 350 PR. Cody is an excellent 3-seed with an absurdly high lifetime win-rate of 68% through three seasons. Shunsui21 is in the 4-seed and maintains a slightly below average lifetime win-rate of 44% after four seasons. They’ve got rookie DrMandingo in the 5-seed, but he is perhaps under-seeded with a 260 PR. This team has a pair of underachievers, a pair of rookies and one of the best 3-seeds in Hero Series. Despite having Cody locking down the 3-seed, they are going to need some help. I am projecting this team for a 20-25 record.
17. Booty Bay Yacht Club - Teal
Is there a more stacked Conquest roster than Booty Bay Yacht Club? Unfortunately, this is Last Hero Standing. MemyselfAndI is a known quantity in Legacy Series, and although he only has played 3 games through 2 seasons in Hero Series, he’s 2-1. Boozasaurus holds down the 2 seed, and had an excellent rookie season with a 67% win-rate. BlueSombrero is another known quantity in Conquest and excellent player in Legacy Series, but in Hero Series his lifetime win-rate after two seasons is a mere 38%. TwoStarMako is the 4-seed, and again despite an excellent Conquest win-rate, he had an abysmal rookie season winning only 1 out of 4 matches. And finally, the 5-seed is held down by Skritch, with a shockingly low 70 PR and 20% lifetime win-rate through 4 seasons in Hero Series. Given each player’s historical win-rates, I expect this team to be a collective 19-26 in the regular season. Too bad this team doesn’t exist in Legacy Series, because this team would have easily been over the cap in the other format.
18. Tap Last - Purple
Tap Last has Myth in the 1-seed, who had an excellent rookie season going 6-3 in matches. Ace103 is their rookie 2-seed with a PR of 450. Zancat is virtually a rookie in the 3-seed, having played only 1 match prior to this season (they won). Diamond holds down the 4-seed, also in his rookie season in Hero Series. The roster is rounded out by eight bit in the 5-seed, who is likewise a virtual rookie with only 2 matches played prior to this season (he went 1-1). This might be the most inexperienced roster in Hero Series, and it’s captained by Bill Snyder (who is not playing). He’ll have his work cut-out for him, and therefore I’m projecting this inexperienced team for a combined record of 18-27.
19. The Fearless Hearth - Purple
The Fearless Hearth has rookie Ario in their 1-seed, with a 450 PR. They’ve got another rookie LotusKnight in the 2-seed with a 437 PR. Tues makes his Hero Series debut this season and brings over a 411 PR into the 3-seed. Breaking the theme of newbies, Kuthroat is the veteran of the team, although his lifetime win-rate of 39% through four seasons is a bit disappointing. Gelguy is the 5-seed, and he is looking to rebound after a rough rookie campaign saw him go 2-6 in matches. This team is captained by Chiggmo, and he’s got his work cut out for him coaching up three rookies in the top seeds, and a pair of under-achieving veterans in the bottom seeds. I am projecting this team for a combined record of 17-28.
20. Spell Stoners - Purple
There’s not much to say about Spell Stoners, because there’s not much information about them. They’ve got a new captain in Laxlie who after having played in only two matches prior to this season (he won both) is a virtual rookie, and locked in as their 1-seed. Every other member of the team is a rookie. Fornari is the 2-seed and has an unknown PR (has not registered yet). Vendi is the 3-seed with a PR of 371. Freeloader is the 4-seed with a PR of 368 and KidEternity is the 5-seed with a PR of 50. This team has its work cut out for them with no established players on the roster, and they remain a virtual unknown. Therefore, I am projecting them for a record of 16-29.
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