Hero Series - Lineup Trends Week 9

Altenberg runs the numbers so you don't have to.

Since this week’s Lineup Trends will only really apply to playoff teams, and those people who are REALLY interested in statistics, I’m going to keep it relatively brief. This will also be the last Lineup Trends article of the season. The same four lineups that were the most popular in Week 8, were also the most popular last week. Hey, it’s a stale meta weeks before rotation what do you expect? In any case, let’s get to them!

Week 9 Popular Lineups
Lineup #1 – Hunter, Paladin, Priest, Warrior








Week 9 Stats
16 Lineups
Matches: 9-7 (56%)
Games: 35-33 (51%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 5-0 (100%)
Paladin: 2-3 (20%)
Priest: 1-2 (33%)
Warrior: 1-2 (33%)

Total Season Stats
66 Lineups
Matches: 37-29 (56%)
Games: 146-133 (52%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 11-2 (84%)
Paladin: 3-8 (27%)
Priest: 9-13 (41%)
Warrior: 14-6 (70%)

This lineup has become the most popular lineup for several weeks in a row. It has maintained a steadily positive win-rate, but it is not the most effective lineup. When you look at the ban data for the total season, it becomes very apparent that banning Hunter or Warrior is the wrong choice, and that banning Paladin, or perhaps Priest is the way to go. In other words, this lineup wins 70-84% of the time when Hunter or Warrior is banned. I will be curious to see how many people bring it in the playoffs!

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Lineup #2 – Hunter, Mage, Paladin, Priest








Week 9 Stats
9 Lineups
Matches: 6-3 (67%)
Games: 21-13 (62%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 3-1 (75%)
Mage: 1-0 (100%)
Paladin: 1-1 (50%)
Priest: 1-1 (50%)

Total Season Stats
75 Lineups
Matches: 36-39 (48%)
Games: 148-155 (49%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 8-3 (73%)
Mage: 4-2 (67%)
Paladin: 8-12 (40%)
Priest: 16-22 (42%)

This lineup has bounced back and forth between 2nd and 3rd in popularity from week to week. While it technically was less popular than last week, it jumped up into second place due to a bit more variety in lineups last week (perhaps more players were meme-ing after being eliminated from the playoffs). While this has a bit better performance last week, it wasn’t enough to lift the lineup over the 50% mark overall on the season. It still feels a bit sub-optimal.

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Lineup #3 – Hunter, Paladin, Priest, Warlock








Week 9 Stats
8 Lineups
Matches: 4-4 (50%)
Games: 15-20 (43%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-0 (100%)
Paladin: 1-1 (50%)
Priest: 2-3 (40%)
Warlock: 0-0 (0%)

Total Season Stats
66 Lineups
Matches: 29-37 (44%)
Games: 133-147 (48%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 5-7 (42%)
Paladin: 6-11 (35%)
Priest: 23-26 (47%)
Warlock: 1-1 (50%)

The popularity of performance of this lineup continues to decrease.  It has been holding onto a sub-50% win-rate for several weeks now. This was once a dominant lineup choice, but for whatever reason, Warlock in the flex spot still isn’t getting it done.

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Lineup #4 – Hunter-Paladin-Priest-Rogue








Week 9 Stats
7 Lineups
Matches: 4-3 (57%)
Games: 12-11 (52%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-0 (100%)
Paladin: 2-2 (50%)
Priest: 1-1 (50%)
Rogue: 0-0 (100%)

Total Season Stats
27 Lineups
Matches: 19-8 (70%)
Games: 61-40 (60%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 3-0 (100%)
Paladin: 3-3 (50%)
Priest: 11-5 (69%)
Rogue: 2-0 (100%)

This lineup had an impressive showing in Week 8, and while the performed dropped a little bit last week, it still performed positively.  On the season, after 27 matches, it has an insanely good 70% win-rate. Paladin seems like the bet ban choice, but even then it only loses 50% of the time. I think we still need a bit more data on the bans to make some definitive evaluations, but this lineup looks really good.

Conclusion
If you’re in the playoffs, good luck! If not, go outside and enjoy the weather before the rotation hits…because there’s literally nothing new to see here.

-Altenberg

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