Hero Series - Lineup Trends Week 5

We’re two weeks into the post-post-nerf Rastakhan Hero Series meta-game, and Altenberg breaks down the numbers so you don’t have to.

We’re two weeks into the post-post-nerf Rastakhan meta for Hero Series, and after breaking down the numbers, it’s beginning to look like this meta is definitely NOT solved yet. As you’ll see below, lineups that performed well in Week 4 did poorly last week, and those that did poorly in Week 4 performed well last week. In other words, we kind of saw a flip-flop in performance. There were also a couple new lineups to look at, and in short, this meta-game is still in flux. While the overall class usage remains pretty much the same from Week 4 to Week 5, the lineup usage and performance is different. What follows are the four most popular lineups from Week 5.

Week 5 Popular Lineups
Lineup #1 – Hunter, Mage, Paladin, Priest








Week 5 Stats
17 Lineups
Matches: 5-12 (29%)
Games: 28-41 (41%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-2 (33%)
Mage: 0-0 (0%)
Paladin: 0-2 (0%)
Priest: 4-8 (33%)

Total Season Stats
32 Lineups
Matches: 14-18 (44%)
Games: 60-68 (47%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 2-2 (50%)
Mage: 0-0 (0%)
Paladin: 4-4 (50%)
Priest: 8-12 (40%)

This has been the most popular lineup two weeks in a row, as it takes the “top 3” classes and uses Mage as the 4th swing class.  After performing well in Week 4, its popularity increased a little and unfortunately it had a very bad week last week. In fact, when the data from weeks 4 and 5 are combined, it looks pretty rough overall.  Still, it has only been two weeks and if this lineup has a positive set of matches and games in Week 6, it could still prove to be a winning lineup going forward. While Mage took the ladder by storm immediately following the nerfs, its performance and popularity has started to wane. Could we be seeing something similar in Hero Series? When you look at the ban data, it’s interesting that after two weeks and 32 matches, not a single opponent of this lineup has chosen to ban Mage. And when the lineup has had its Priest banned, it is only winning 40% of its matches.

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Lineup #2 – Hunter, Paladin, Priest, Warlock








Week 5 Stats
14 Lineups
Matches: 8-6 (57%)
Games: 32-27 (54%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-1 (50%)
Paladin: 2-0 (100%)
Priest: 5-5 (50%)
Warlock: 0-0 (0%)

Total Season Stats
25 Lineups
Matches: 12-13 (48%)
Games: 54-54 (50%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-1 (50%)
Paladin: 3-3 (50%)
Priest: 8-8 (50%)
Warlock: 0-1 (0%)

This has been the second most popular lineup two weeks in a row and is a carry-over of one of the popular pre-post-nerf Rastakhan Rumble lineups. Like the lineup above, it uses the "Top 3" classes plus Warlock in the swing spot. It performed poorly in Week 4 but rebounded and performed well in Week 5. When you combine the two weeks together you get a decidedly average-to-below average lineup. I’d like to see some more data on this before I make a final decision on whether this is good or not, because a 48-50% win-rate in both matches and games doesn’t inspire much confidence one way or the other. Even looking at the ban data reveals almost nothing about the best way for opponents to counter the lineup.

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Lineup #3 – Hunter, Paladin, Priest, Warrior








Week 5 Stats
7 Lineups
Matches: 5-2 (71%)
Games: 19-10 (66%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 0-0 (0%)
Paladin: 0-1 (0%)
Priest: 2-1 (67%)
Warrior: 3-0 (100%)

Total Season Stats
11 Lineups
Matches: 6-5 (55%)
Games: 24-20 (55%)
Opponent Bans
Hunter: 1-0 (100%)
Paladin: 0-2 (0%)
Priest: 2-3 (40%)
Warrior: 3-0 (100%)

This lineup saw an uptick in usage from Week 4 (4 lineups) to Week 5 (7 lineups). Like the two lineups above, it also uses the "Top 3" classes, but instead adds in Warrior in the swing spot. It had a below average performance in Week 4, but with increased usage last week, its performance spiked. In a meta-game where Hunter, Paladin and Mage are three of the top 4 classes, Warrior could be poised to strike while the iron is hot with several great match-ups against those three classes with Odd Warrior, and the ability to swap to a suddenly not-so-bad Rush Warrior deck that can also beat up on popular Paladin, Mage and Hunter decks. When looking at the ban data, it seems obvious that banning Paladin or Priest are the best ways to counter it, because this lineup hasn’t lost a match when it’s Hunter or Warrior is banned.  And those Warrior bans last week might be part of the reason this lineup is looking good. If this lineup sees increased usage in Week 6, and opponents don't ban Warrior, I wonder what kind of performance it would have?

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Lineup #4 – Druid, Hunter, Paladin, Warlock








Week 5 Stats
6 Lineups
Matches: 2-4 (33%)
Games: 8-16 (33%)
Opponent Bans
Druid: 2-0 (100%)
Hunter: 0-3 (0%)
Paladin: 0-0 (0%)
Warlock: 0-1 (0%)

Total Season Stats
7 Lineups
Matches: 3-4 (43%)
Games: 11-18 (38%)
Opponent Bans
Druid: 2-0 (100%)
Hunter: 1-3 (25%)
Paladin: 0-0 (0%)
Warlock: 0-1 (0%)
 
This is a brand-new lineup, having been brought by only 1 person in Week 4, but being used by 6 people in Week 5. The inclusion of Druid should be good on paper, as it has multiple archetypes and can be a great Priest counter. And interestingly. this lineup does not include Priest at all.  But unfortunately, its performance last week was abysmal. It looks only a tiny bit better overall after the one person who brought it in Week 4 did well with it, but this lineup needs some help. In looking at the ban data, choosing to ban anything other than Druid has shut this lineup down.

Week 5 Class Popularity

1. Hunter – 82 Lineups
2. Priest – 72 Lineups
3. Paladin – 71 Lineups
4. Mage – 50 Lineups
5. Warlock – 47 Lineups
6. Warrior – 27 Lineups
7. Druid – 19 Lineups
8. Rogue – 18 Lineups
9. Shaman – 3 Lineups

Conclusion
This meta-game is far from solved, although it does have some similarity to the previous meta-game in class popularity.  Once again, we have a “Top 3” of Hunter, Priest and Paladin, but this time Mage and Warlock are close behind in popularity with Mage taking over Rogue’s old spot in the pre-post-nerf Rastakhan meta. Mage and Rogue both saw a slight decline in usage from Week 4 to Week 5, while Druid saw in increase and overtook Rogue for the 7th spot.  Hunter, Priest and Paladin largely held steady (although Paladin saw a teeny-tiny decline to fall to 3rd place behind Priest). Otherwise, the rest of the list stayed the same.  The two most popular lineups from last week held steady, although they flip-flopped in performance and I’m not totally convinced either one is the optimal lineup for Hero Series. We saw two new lineups pop-up in popularity and neither one lit the world on fire. Two of the better performing lineups from Week 4 saw a decline in both usage and performance in Week 5.  I wish I had better news for you all and could “solve” it for you, but we simply need more than two weeks’ worth of data.  So until then, good luck and have fun!

-Altenberg

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