Hero Series Final Playoff Push

the_bigted has one last look at the Hero series playoff race as we enter the final week of the regular season.

Hello Hero Series fans. It is I, The_Bigted, coming to you with an update for the final week of season 10 of the Hero Series. With the 2nd-6th place teams being only 5 points apart, the final playoff push is going to be an all out war. For each team, I will give an update of what they have done since the midseason checkpoint, then say what they need to happen to make playoffs (for this section I will be assuming the most likely playoff situation will happen, which is Dad Legend, Nas-Dormu, and 2 of The Burninators, Teen Hearth Legends, The Cult, and NoProsHere making it. I will talk about other possible situations after the team by team breakdown).  Without further ado, here is the breakdown (Note: The current cutoff for playoffs is at 120 points, held by Teen Hearth Legends.):

1. Dad Legend (145 points, 8-0, +25 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: DSM-5)

There isn’t much to say here. They are the only playoff team that doesn’t have to worry this week, as they have already clinched a playoff spot. They are so far ahead, in fact, that unless they get 0 points this week, and The Burninators sweep Teen Hearth Legends, they also have the first seed clinched for the playoffs. Their reign of terror surely doesn’t seem to be stopping any time soon, and they have a playoff spot to show for it.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Nothing. They can sit back and relax, and enjoy a week of taking it easy before playoffs start.

2. Burninators (123 points, 4-4, +3 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Teen Hearth Legends)
The first team in our match of the week is The Burninators. This is match of the week because it is the only match with 2 playoff teams playing in it. Since the midseason, they have done exactly what they needed to do. They have kept up their level of play, while facing an easier set of opponents. This has caused them to move from 4th to 2nd, and improve a 1-3 record to a 4-4. However, that could all be for not if they don’t show up this week.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Win this week by a decent margin. They need to win this week to keep Teen Hearth Legends from passing them, and they need to win by a decent margin to keep The Cult and NoProsHere from passing them as well. A week where they only put up a 13-10 win for example, and The Cult and NoProsHere each put up 17 or 18 in a win would cause them to probably still miss.

3. Nas-Dormu (121 points, 5-3, +1 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Tan Pam’s Surf Slam)

Nas-Dormu has had an impressive back half of the season. They were sitting in 8th place after the 4th week, with an AOS around the median. This means that they had to start playing better, without an easier schedule to aid in that. In fact, in that time, they have actually grown to have the highest AOS. However, that has not slowed them down, as they have gone undefeated since that point, which is good enough to earn them 3rd place. And this week they will be rewarded for that hard work, as they get to face Tan  Pam’s Surf Slam, who is statistically the weakest team in hero.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Play like they have been this season. As long as they don’t slack off this week, and they get the result they should, they should have no trouble beating Tan Pam’s Surf Slam and booking their ticket to the playoffs.

4. Teen Hearth Legends (120 points, 4-3-1, 0 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Burninators)
This is our final team that is currently in a playoff spot. Since the midseason checkpoint, they have continued to keep up their level of play. An easier second half of the season has allowed them to improve from 7th to 4th place. They are the other half of what I am calling the match of the week. Like their opponents The Burninators, they need a big win.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Same story as The Burninators. Not only do they need a win, but to guarantee a spot, they need a sizable win so The Cult and NoProsHere don’t end up sneaking by. However, they need a bit of a bigger win then The Burninators would need, as they are closer in points to The Cult and NoProsHere.

5. The Cult (119 points, 4-4, -1 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Advanced Tactical Lackeys)
As I predicted in my last post, this has been a rollercoaster for The Cult. They have been up and down all season, and where do they end up? Right in the middle of everything, with a very realistic chance of making playoffs, of course. Their main opposition for the final week is NoProsHere, as they are both in the exact same situation: playing an opponent that is not in the playoffs, that they should on paper beat.
What they need to do to make playoffs: They need to outscore NoProsHere while also outscoring the loser of Teen Hearth Legends and The Burninators. It’s that simple.

6. Team NoProsHere (118 points, 5-3, -2 cutoff Week 10 opponent: Annoy-o-Team)
The back half has been a bit of a disaster for this team. They started out as the undefeated team that was mentioned in the same breaths as Dad Legend, averaging 17.5 points per week. Since the midseason, however, they have gone 1-3, and only put up 48 points, good for 12 per week. To their credit, their back half was a bit tougher, but not hard enough to justify this kind of dropoff. Luckily for them, they are still in the race.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Same story as The Cult. They need to out score the Cult, while also outscoring the loser of Teen Hearth Legends and The Burninators.

7. DSM Five (102 points, 2-5-1, -18 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Dad Legend)
I’m sorry for anyone who hasn’t seen their team listed yet, but this is the start of the teams that aren’t going to make it. DSM has had an impressive back half of the season, as they had a much harder strength of schedule than they started out with, and managed to go 1-2-1 and put up more points then they started out with. However, it ended up being too little too late, as they are still too far out to have a realistic chance. However, they haven’t technically eliminated yet.
What they need to do to make playoffs: They need to put up a 20 point week against the strongest team in Hero, while having 3 of the other 5 teams ahead of them all put up 0 points. Ez.

8. Advanced Tactical Lackies (101 points, 3-5, -19 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Cult)
This team was right in the middle of it when the midseason hit. However, as I stated before, they had had an easy schedule, and had to step up their play to stay in it. Unfortunately, the schedule got the best of them, and they went 1-3 since. However, like DSM, they haven’t been mathematically eliminated yet.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Score more than DSM does, while having the same situation of having 3 of the other 5 teams ahead of them (except for Dad Legend) all put up 0 points.

9. Team Annoy-o-Team (99 points, 3-5, -21 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: NoProsHere)
This is another story of a strong, unsustainable start. They started out by landing in 3rd after the front half of the season, however had one of the easiest AOS. Just like I had predicted, they would fall off. I never expected it to be this hard, but it did happen.
What they need to do to make playoffs: For this, I am going to quote what Mattatarms said in the hero-series channel in the discord. “Team Annoy-o-team can make the playoffs! (if everyone else loses and doesnt score points)”.

10. Tan Pam’s Surf Slam (76 points, 1-7, -44 cutoff, Week 10 opponent: Nas-Dormu)
I feel for this team. They have been a consistent force in Hero Series since I’ve been around. I feel like there isn’t anything else to say about their season that hasn’t been said already, so I will just leave it at this; I hope this is just a bump in the road for this team, and not the end of it.
What they need to do to make playoffs: Petition RHat to restart the season.


The main other playoff scenario would be if Tan Pam’s Surf Slam ends up having a big week against Nas-Dormu. If the upset would happen, this would mean that an additional slot could open up, which would more than likely mean that both The Cult and NoProsHere make it. There also is the possibility that both The Cult and NoProsHere blow it this week, which could open up the possibility of both Teen Hearth Legends and The Burninators making it in the case of a close week.
So that’s about it for my blog write up. Oh, you want predictions. Fine, I’ll give them to you (these are completely unbiased by the way). I think that Teen Hearth Legends takes it over The Burninators, and The Cult and NoProsHere end up scoring the same amount this week, which would cause The Cult to stay 1 point ahead. My final playoff seeding prediction is:

1. Dad Legend
   
2. Nas-Dormu
   
3. The Cult
   
4. Teen Hearth Legends
   

One last thing to mention with a series this close is ties. Since the head to head tiebreaker is based on the match from the season, here are all of the relevant tie breaker scenarios:

Cult > Burninators
NoProsHere > Teen Hearth Legends 
Teen Hearth Legends > Cult
NoProsHere > Burninators
Teen Hearth Legends > Nas-Dormu
NoProsHere > Cult
Nas-Dormu > Burninators
Nas-Dormu > Cult
Nas-Dormu > NoProsHere

Anyways, that will wrap up my article. Please check in the discord throughout the week, as I will be spamming it with updates to the playoff chances as scores come in. Thank you everyone for reading.

• Ted